How bad do you hate my flop play?

[BusterStacks]

Look, I agree the flop was fishy, I'm just not sure you understand the hand to the extent of your comments.

[Spicymoose]

The flop may be EV-, but I am unsure about this. If it is EV-, it is only slightly negative. If you are convinced it is hugely EV-, then about how big do you think the pot would have to be before EV=0?

[CinnamonWind]

[ QUOTE ]
The flop may be EV-, but I am unsure about this. If it is EV-, it is only slightly negative. If you are convinced it is hugely EV-, then about how big do you think the pot would have to be before EV=0?

[/ QUOTE ]

The first call on the flop is -EV. He had no pair he can catch to win (most likely) and two backdoor draws to a baby flush and a (possible) weak straight (though he could make the nuts too). Let's say he's in against one overpair (looks like AA-QQ), two broadway hands, and a three random suiteds on the flop that see the turn. That means his equity is about 4.3% and he needs 22.4-1 for this (the equivalent of having one out). Well on the first flop call, he has 20-1 to him, but of course implied odds may force a call here IF you think it will only be called behind you, which is a HUGE assumption here. Then one must think about not only one, but perhaps two raises, and possibly even 3.

Then on the second flop call it is 15.5-1 to him facing two bets with the possibility it will be reraised behind him again (from MP3) and that one-bet callers may drop out now (BB and Button). That's a terrible call.

Even after computing the pure equity against random-ish hands, one must factor in the possibility of his outs not being good. There might be a set already on the flop, possibly counterfeiting a couple of clubs and possibly a straight card now or later (which happened here, the 9). Someone may make a higher straight or a backdoor flush as he makes a straight. He only has a baby flush draw. If you're going to pay a lot for draws because you're in a monster pot, you should be drawing to the nuts.

The turn is obviously terrible, with no explanation needed I hope.

There are so many reasons to just move on here, but our "Hero" kept throwing in the chips hoping for a total miracle. That's what fish do, and it's why they lose their money in the long run.

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
The flop may be EV-, but I am unsure about this. If it is EV-, it is only slightly negative. If you are convinced it is hugely EV-, then about how big do you think the pot would have to be before EV=0?

[/ QUOTE ]

If we were closing the action at 20:1, this call would be ok, but I think with the possibility of it getting raised makes this call -EV. I actually thought it would be really bad getting 3-bet (If we knew so ahead of time), but I was doing some math and figured that if we knew we were going to pay 3 on the flop, and knew we'd only have to pay 1 on the turn (big assumption), we would only have to makeup about 3-4BB for this to be +EV. The problem is, there is a small percentage of time we'd lose to a larger runner-runner flush (although probably pretty rare), but an even larger percentage where our outs might give someone with a set a full house. Or we may hit our flush and lose to a FH on the river. All these possibilities probably make this a -EV call, although I think its closer than I first thought.

[Munga30]

[ QUOTE ]
Sure, but the 19:1 also assumed everyone else would fold. Even if the preflop raiser did raise (which he did), there are 6 other people left to act. There is a HUGE pot, so even if we are estimating conservatively, there will probably be at least 2 other callers. That would mean you will have to pay 2 SB with a pot of 28. 14:1 isn't so bad with all the implied odds out there, and this is a conservative estimate.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Implied odds include those bets you expect to collect after you make your hand. You can't make your hand until the river, at which point you can't count on 4 way action for 3 big bets. That doesn't even account for the money you have to put in on the turn to see the river (one reason why the turn raise is getting slammed by others). That money doesn't count toward your implied odds.

Yes, the pot is pretty big. If you were closing the action, it would be a good call. But it's not a good call in the posted hand.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
If we were closing the action at 20:1, this call would be ok, but I think with the possibility of it getting raised makes this call -EV. I actually thought it would be really bad getting 3-bet (If we knew so ahead of time), but I was doing some math and figured that if we knew we were going to pay 3 on the flop, and knew we'd only have to pay 1 on the turn (big assumption), we would only have to makeup about 3-4BB for this to be +EV. The problem is, there is a small percentage of time we'd lose to a larger runner-runner flush (although probably pretty rare), but an even larger percentage where our outs might give someone with a set a full house. Or we may hit our flush and lose to a FH on the river. All these possibilities probably make this a -EV call, although I think its closer than I first thought.



[/ QUOTE ]

Good post. Without doing any math I assure that the initial flop call is close to 0 but -EV. The second flop call is fine and the turn raise is horrible. Along with the "fck it, I have money in" fish mentality, this hand is the worse I've seen in a while.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
It's close put even playing 2 bets he's getting ~15:1+ or something like that.

Added: It's the first flop call that sucks more, even at 20:1.


[/ QUOTE ]
Why is calling when getting 20:1 worse than calling when getting 15:1?

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree. Implied odds include those bets you expect to collect after you make your hand. You can't make your hand until the river, at which point you can't count on 4 way action for 3 big bets. That doesn't even account for the money you have to put in on the turn to see the river (one reason why the turn raise is getting slammed by others). That money doesn't count toward your implied odds.


[/ QUOTE ]

Except for the situation where Hero hits a OESFD on the turn, in that case, as long as 2+ people are in, every bet that goes in probably benefits HERO. If we knew it was going to end up like it did (6 people seeing multiple bets on the turn), then whenever we hit the OESFD and gutshot SF draw this would all be bets that would increase our payout. Even having to pay multiple bets when hitting our flush draw/oesd wouldn't be so bad with this many people in. In Actuality, I think the possibility of multiple bets on the turn is not as devestating as I first thought. But again, a large part of that is the fact that we know 6 people wanted to pay on the turn.

[challenger84]

Wow, if I ever played a hand that poorly, I think I'd get up, go outside and take a walk, calm down a little bit. Buster, maybe you should try tha... oh yeah, nevermind.

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
Without doing any math I assure that the initial flop call is close to 0 but -EV. The second flop call is fine and the turn raise is horrible. Along with the "fck it, I have money in" fish mentality, this hand is the worse I've seen in a while.


[/ QUOTE ]

I definately agree with how bad the comment was about having money in already... When I first looked at this hand I thought that it was a horrible flop call not closing the action, so I decided to try and figure out how bad. My math may be wrong because I did it a little quick. Its tough because you have to make assumptions about the turn action and I was also assuming we would win 100% of the time when we made our hand which obviously isn't true. But, I was definately suprised with what I came up with concerning the flop call probably not being too -EV even knowing we'd be 3-bet.

I think hands like this show me that when the pot is large, the fish are actually probably playing more correctly than we are at times. I've definately been in this situation a lot lately with large pots and overcards on dangerous boards. Situations where your not sure even if your outs are clean, but the pot is so large a call is warrented. I've been suprised to find that when I have made a few of these calls, I've ended up winning some pots that I was probably giving up before.