#11
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Re: too passive with trips/weak kicker?
If a set almost always goes to showdown with a high win percentage, don't you want to be pumping the pot?
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#12
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Re: too passive with trips/weak kicker?
It's possible to quantify this, although you need to estimate how often villain will have called preflop with various pairs. But I think it boils down to this: you're only beaten on the flop by A2 K2 Q2 and 77. Even typical players might not have called Q2o or K2o. Against this you have all other paired hands (downweighted because he might have raised) and lower 2Xs (X=10 or lower also downweighted because he might not have called preflop). Maybe you also count 23o, lol.
Even with downweighting, the hands he might hold for the flop raise where you're ahead greatly exceed those where you're beaten. Without downweighting I think its 154:20 in your favor, so maybe 3:1 or 4:1 is a good guess for the odds favoring you to be ahead. Oh, and I forgot hands like A7, K7, 7Xs, etc. |
#13
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Re: too passive with trips/weak kicker?
I consider the Jack a weak kicker in this context because I don't expect UTG+2 to be playing hands like T2, 92, 62 etc.
I agree however that I played this hand very weakly, and missed bets. I think the stop-n-go would have been best here, because both a flop 3-bet or turn checkraise are likely to scream "2!" at my opponents, whereas I am more likely to not fold them out if I lead out on all streets. |
#14
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Re: too passive with trips/weak kicker?
You've got trips! Villain might have a bigger set than your trips on the flop, but only if he has 77, or if he has your J beat. Be aggressive and 3-bet the flop and bet out on the turn and river.
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