Party 2/4NL-6max Deep Stacks (cross post from SS NL)

[fuzzylogic]

I got an advice that I should post this also here. So here it comes.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, 4$ BB (6 max, 5 handed) converter

SB <font color="#A500AF">(Shortstack)</font> ($88.8)
BB ($198.1)
UTG <font color="#A500AF">(Villain)</font> ($1191.8)
Hero ($699.6)
Button ($201.7)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB <font color="#A500AF">(Shortstack)</font> posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG <font color="#A500AF">(Villain)</font> raises to $15</font>, Hero calls $15, Button folds, SB <font color="#A500AF">(Shortstack)</font> (poster) calls $86.80 (All-In), BB folds, UTG <font color="#A500AF">(Villain)</font> calls $73.80, Hero calls $73.80.

I called because I was pretty sure the Shortstack wouldn't have a much of a hand. I believe he could do this with any ace etc.

Flop: ($270.40) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>
Villain checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $100</font>, Villain calls $100.

Hmm...not a bad flop. I think I'm still ahead. I bet 100$ (mistake!? too weak?).

Turn: ($470.40) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Villain bets $150</font>, Hero?

Pot is now 470$ plus Villains bet 150$. I have 510$ left. Villain has me covered. What is your play? If u call/raise what will you do on river if

1) a facecard (not J) or an ace hits?
2) a diamond hits?
3) blank hits?

Thanks for input.

FuzzyLogic

[/ QUOTE ]

[Cornell Fiji]

Fold the turn. Although it is possible that you are against A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Kx here I would put the villain on the nut flush or AA-QQ with a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] higher than yours in his hand (without the diamond he would bet more on the turn) often enough to make this an easy laydown.

Meanwhile, even if he does have the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Kx (the one hand that you can beat) you only have a 55% of being ahead after the river.

Plus you might be playing for only a $100 side pot if the short stack has a big hand here.

You are way behind or slightly ahead for the sidepot. And it is unlikely that you are ahead for the main pot (someone has you beat IMO)

In addition, If you call here you know that all of the chips are going in on the river after the villain's stop and go and I just dont think that your overpair Jacks are strong enough here unless you hit one of your two outs.

Fold.
-Steve

[schwza]

yeah, i think fiji's analysis is good. it's a total disaster if villain has something like Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Qx. and unless you hit your two outer, you can't be confident in your hand.

the villain knows you have something reasonable, or you probably wouldn't bet into a dry side pot, and now he's leading into you. i don't know if i would have come up with that play in the heat of the moment, but i think it's time to go.

[creedofhubris]

Villain is pretty unlikely to be bluffing here, since short stack is all-in. I think this is a fold.

If I were you, I would've bet $200 on the flop, and then check/folded after that.