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#1
12-09-2004, 02:11 PM
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i am Bubbleboy way too often --- am i doing something wrong?
i have started to get into STT now.
I am doing OK, but statistically i seem to be finishing 4th way too often. In the last 3 weeks i have played about 30, all $100-$300 buyins. Won 3, 2nd 3 times, and 3rd twice, 4th 13 times. i know i should play maybe 100 more before drawing any kind of statistical conclusions, but i am starting to wonder if there is some tourney bubble startegy i am missing. For instance, just a couple of minutes ago we were down to 4, all roughly same stack size around 2500 and blinds at 200-400. All (i guess that would just be utg lol) fold to button, who raises to 800. i look at JJ and push. he thinks then calls showing KT suited. He gets the K to knock me out. I have many more like this. my question is, unless i got AA KK QQ or AK, do you push allin preflop, or just wait to see flop to ensure no overcards before pushing? Just seems so often when we're down to 4 its so often me going out next regardless of my stack size. 
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#2
12-09-2004, 02:28 PM
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Re: i am Bubbleboy way too often --- am i doing something wrong?
Not much information to work with as to why you bubble out so often [you are right, this is a pretty small sample to work with].
I would; however, never push JJ out of position when it has been min raised by the button. Unless you are putting him on a steal [a min raise does not look like a steal to me] I tend to play JJ for set value.
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#3
12-09-2004, 02:36 PM
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Re: i am Bubbleboy way too often --- am i doing something wrong?
[ QUOTE ]
Not much information to work with as to why you bubble out so often [you are right, this is a pretty small sample to work with]. I would; however, never push JJ out of position when it has been min raised by the button. Unless you are putting him on a steal [a min raise does not look like a steal to me] I tend to play JJ for set value. [/ QUOTE ] You can't play JJ for set value here with 6 BB. Against the range he will be raising you're ahead the majority of the time so it's a clear push although you're probably not getting a fold. Pushing out of position and in position doesn't really have any meaning; there's no post flop decisions.
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#7
12-09-2004, 03:48 PM
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Re: i am Bubbleboy way too often --- am i doing something wrong?
OK...point taken.
But my results are not that bad.... just the hi number of bubble finishes. But it is true that i am coming from a strict SH limit background, and trying this out for fun and variety.
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#8
12-09-2004, 03:49 PM
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Re: i am Bubbleboy way too often --- am i doing something wrong?
Hey PP
A raise 4-handed can be a TON of different hands. You are ahead of nearly eveyone of them and aside from AA, KK or QQ you are at worst a coinflip. That said, with the stack sizes, you dont want to have to make too many tough decisions post-flop. Couple that with the previously mentioned facts about current number of players, stack sizes, range of opponents hands and this (to me at least) is an autopush. It seems a little awkward that you are saying that you are 'just getting into STT' and you are playing in the $100-$300 buyins. You should definitely consider trying the lower level buyins for a while first. Nothing wrong with banging around in some $30's and $50's while you get the feel for things. JW
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#9
12-09-2004, 03:57 PM
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Re: i am Bubbleboy way too often --- am i doing something wrong?
thanks for your reply.
maybe i should explain about the just starting point. I have played in quite few STT's before, both live and online, and have fared OK, so i am not really just starting out at those limits. What i am starting to do though is play those more regularly, like 3-4 a day..
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#10
12-09-2004, 05:07 PM
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Re: i am Bubbleboy way too often --- am i doing something wrong?
I'm sure most of these points have been made but...
Your results after 30 tournaments should not phase you. As someone who often plays 30 tournaments a day (50s-200s), I can tell you that you're going to have all sorts of weird things happen over that amount of time. This includes an abberant number of 4ths, which is of course about the most aggrivating possibility. 100 more tournaments will not be enough to draw meaningful conclusions either. I'm honestly not certain if the 800 or so I've played is enough either. The specific JJ hand is not even close imo. It's a four handed game, you have the 4th best hand in hold-em, put all your chips in. It's not like you are either getting 4th or top 3. The chips you are gaining through doubling up radically change your odds of getting 1st or 2nd. If for some reason you knew the player and the min raise means extreme strength, then maybe you could find a fold, but this seems like a really rare opportunity to me. Also, when a round of blinds knocks out a 4th of your stack, you can't really be seeing a lot of flops; especially with the intention of folding if a Q, K, or A falls. It seems to me you need to be more concerned with EV over the long haul rather than your finish in a specific tournament. For example, if on the bubble everyone is playing super tight, perhaps even correctly tight, it might be correct to really open up your aggression. This would of course lead to more 4ths, but way more than your share of 1sts if applied correctly.
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