Bellagio 8/16 hand against a young table coach (long).

[sthief09]

you are extremely arrogant, and I genuinely hope it doesn't lead to your demise, because I remember you making some good posts in the past. no offense, but this post really makes you look bad

[Oblivious]

I agree that I misplayed it. I found it to be an interesting hand, and Im glad you all helped me to analyse it... I really appreciate it. I really dont want to come off sounding arrogant or anything.

Coach: if youre listening, nice hand. You were certainly right in our little argument, no hard feelings... just dont tap the glass too much.

[Derek in NYC]

Since nobody has answered your question, I'll take a shot at why playing it this way is reasonable.

1. There is some chance your hand is the best, maybe it is 40%. It is possible that nobody has a J, and the villain was raising with big unpaired cards like AK, AQ, or KQ. (Of course while the single overcard is there, you're also afraid of overpairs to your 99, namely AA-TT, or that the raiser had AJs.)

2. There is a good chance that if #1 is true, it will still be true on 4th street, meaning an overcard to your 99 won't fall and you wont be outdrawn. This is somewhat of a marginal claim, but it is technically true, since 9 is in the top 50% of card ranks. You would be much less justified playing the same way if you held pocket 66 a flop of J24.

3. The board is fairly uncoordinated with the flop of J75. A small str8 draw is possible, but most likely the best draw somebody has here is a gutshot, which isn't going to be worth playing for 2 bets. Although the original poster didn't mention it, I'm assuming the board was rainbow. A monotone, or even a two-tone flop would make the play more questionable. This is important because in order for the check-raise isolation move to work, you need to have some chance of winning the hand right there, or at worst, getting heads up against the aggressive raiser who you put on big cards, and who will fold when you lead on 4th street. A highly coordinated board makes it unlikely that you will either (a) win immediately, or (b) get heads up so you can lead and win on 4th street.

4. The 7 and 5 are not in what Ciaffone calls "the playing zone", meaning preflop people aren't likely to be playing hands that contain a 7 or a 5. (Of course somebody might play a suited connector early, or a suited ace-rag, but hopefully not.) The point here is that it is even less likely that somebody has connected with the flop. And even if they did connect, your 2 bets makes it right for them to fold. Also, it bears mentioning that both the texture of the board, and the EP checkers, mean that it is unlikely sombody flopped two pair.

5. The board is unpaired. This factor cuts both ways. On an unpaired board, there are 9 cards that connect with the board. On a paired board, there are only 5 cards that connect. So the chances that nobody connected is better on a paired board. On the other hand, it matters what the pair is. If the flop is K22, you can feel confident that nobody holds a 2 (though be careful if the big blind got a free play, and to a lesser extent, if the SB is in the hand). On the other hand, if the flop is KK2, you should immediately be concerned that somebody holds a K and you are drawing dead.

Hope this helps.

[James282]

Hi sthief - for the most part you are dead on here. On this board I would usually say hero is either behind now or he will be behind enough on the river that a fold is prudent here. Be careful though, as you move up through the limits you will see a lot more turn raises from good players with marginal holdings. I played a hand fairly similar to this last night in the 30 60 on party. One limp from a mediocre to poor player, and a tough player raises from late position. I had 67s in the BB and called as did the limper. The flop came 973. I check-raised and the limper folded, good player called. Turn was a jack, I bet, he raised, I called. River was a 4. I checked, he checked behind and MHWG. Good players do make these sorts of plays at the higher limits when they know the other player is reasonable(or weak) also.
-James

[SirFWALGMan]

Thanks for your reply. It is well written and gives me alot to think about. Does it effect your decision if the flop card is a A,K,Q? I would assume there would be a higher percentage of chance that someone stayed in with an A than a J? Or is it all the same?

[Stork]

[ QUOTE ]
1. There is some chance your hand is the best, maybe it is 40%.

[/ QUOTE ]

If there was a 40% chance his hand was good, he would have an easy call.

[Derek in NYC]

Middle pairs are hard to play after the flop if you miss your set. (Small pairs are easy... you chuck em). Middle pairs can still be good, but the line you take often depends on the texture of the flop and the size of the field.

In this example, the original poster decided to go with the isolation check raise rather than betting because of: (1) his position, which was lousy; (2) the size of the field namely 4 people, meaning its hard to win the hand or even narrow the field by leading on the flop; and (3) the pre-flop aggressor was to his immediate right, so he had confidence the checkraise would work. With a different field or position, he'd play it differently.

With a middle pair, I tend to treat all Broadway cards as about the same, with the exception of the ace, since so many people like to play ace-rag or suited-ace. Meaning it's a fair bet that somebody is playing a broadway card in a 4 person field. If an ace flops, I get squirrely even faster.

Again, to go back to the present case, in addition to the reasons I gave, the observed action on the flop also made the checkraise here makes sense because the EP players didn't lead out, thus making it slightly less likely that they held a Jack.

The original check on the flop also makes sense to me, so you have the advantage of observing the action. Certainly, if an EP player had bet and been raised, it is a clear fold. If only the pre-flop raiser raises, you have a legitimate checkraise.

The real problem with the flop check is if somebody in EP bets, and 1-2 more players (including the preflop raiser)overcall. That is a hard position to play. Now you have very little information about people's hands (except that everybody liked the flop enough to call). In this case, the size of the field is the deciding factor, and I would fold if there were 4 overcallers, maybe call if there were 3 with the intention of betting 4th street assuming a blank but folding to a 4th street raise.

Reading boards is a tough skill. Although he is not popular around here, I do like Ciaffone's middle limit poker book. It gives you a good sense for the thought process for board reading in tight games.

You can't take Ciaffone's concepts and apply them in a Party 3/6 game, or you will be running for the hills at the first sign of aggression. But it is probably at least as good as Ed Miller's book in terms of "how to think on later streets".