General pot odds/pot equity question

[Yobz]

Ok, I was re-reading SSH again recently and thought about this situation:

Your the button with A3 suited. 2 limpers, you call, SB folds BB checks.

Flop is 2 7 J, 2 of your suit. So you have 4 of your suit with a draw to the nut flush:
BB bets, limper 1 raises, limper 2 3-bets.
There are 10 bets in the pot and you are getting 3:1 or so with 9 outs. You do not have the pot odds to call, but your pot equity says "cap it!!!", especially if you think everyone will call.

What do you do?

[david050173]

I call. I am hoping that encourages the BB to come along. I also want to see if either the BB or limper 1 wants to cap.

[daryljobe777]

One thing lately I have been ignoring in my game is implied odds. At what point here, especially considering you are on the come, is it correct to consider that impact?

[phixxx]

I don't calculate EXACT implied odds, I just take a look at the situation and go from there. Maybe I need to look a little deeper into implied odds.

[jtr]

Pot equity considerations certainly suggest that you're not folding so it's either call the 3-bet or cap. I think you cap it as you also hold the ace as an overcard and want to protect that out (granted it's a long shot to win the pot this way, but if you can get a hand like ATo to fold here that's a coup).

[Yobz]

[ QUOTE ]
Pot equity considerations certainly suggest that you're not folding so it's either call the 3-bet or cap. I think you cap it as you also hold the ace as an overcard and want to protect that out (granted it's a long shot to win the pot this way, but if you can get a hand like ATo to fold here that's a coup).

[/ QUOTE ]

So if it is correct to all using *either* pot odds or pot equity then you should call? If not, when does one become more important than the other (in this situation I think its obvious you should call or cap because of pot equity, but is it always so obvious?)

[BusterStacks]

In this case you are drawing to the nuts, with a reasonable chance to hit. This should give you good enough reason to look past your immediate pot odds.

[BSXX]

Unless I am missing something, you DO have the pot odds to call. You are slightly better than 2:1 to hit your nut flush by the river when you are 4 suited on the flop.

[jtr]

Hey, Yobz.

Really good question. I would say that to a first approximation, the comparison between the odds offered by the pot (whether that be pot odds or implied odds) and our pot equity (i.e., our chance of winning, basically) tells us whether we have any business staying in the hand at all. So you might have a decent amount of pot equity, say 20%, but simply not be getting the required 4:1 from the pot, even with a wishful interpretation of your implied odds.

If we do decide to stay in then considering pot equity versus the number of opponents tells us whether we should be calling (lower than your fair share of equity) or raising (more than your fair share).

Of course that's not the end of the story (see NPA E. Miller on protecting your hand for example), but that's how I see the two concepts relating.

Hope this doesn't contradict my earlier shorthand comment.

Cheers,
--JTR.

PS: get those hands in; I am being a bum and am still on something pathetic like 460.

[Yobz]

Ok, I see what you are getting to: Miller separates odds and equity in the following way:
a) You determine if you will fold/stay in by odds
b) You determine if you call/raise by equity (if in part a you said you would stay in)
In this case you do not have the odds to call, but you certainly have the equity to raise, which seems like a contradiction.
In the long run I could imagine a situation like this being +EV with a raise or call, which contradicts the pot odds (including implied odds, unless you are very willing to throw massive implied odds in there, which you might be able to...)
All in all I think this is a pretty unique situation and with a good grasp you should be able to figure out whats best in what situation (opponent dependant I guess, if they wont 3-bet w/o a set in which case they also have a good chance of winning even if you hit your flush)...