Standard Hand 2: Whiffed Overcards OOP

[Octopus]

How many players? What pre-flop action? What has happened so far on the flop? How loose are my opponents?

You have asked an unanswerable question.

[LeftBack]

Tell me, what is your win rate with one pair in Poker Tracker?

[DMBFan23]

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as a theoretical exercise, rate my overcard outs (not other outs, such as flush/straight outs)

I guess my point is that it's more the general concept of discounting outs that matters


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yeah, I was too ambiguous, partially cause I wanted to give a couple of examples of hands, and all the action would have obscured them, and partially because I just wanted to say that overcard outs vary in value a lot, which may get obscured by having a value attached to the generic concept of "overcard"

but for completeness' sake, for all hands let's assume we're on the button and we raise 2 limpers, BB calls. on the flop, the second limper (in MP) bets.

[DMBFan23]

I'll edit the post I am now making when I get home from work and have access to PT.

we are counting the one pair hands where I don't fold, yes?

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
Tell me, what is your win rate with one pair in Poker Tracker?

[/ QUOTE ]

That statistic includes when there is a pair on the board and when you were on a draw and back into a pair on the river. Don't read too much into it.

[LeftBack]

I was trying to point out another way to look at the discount for overcards and TPTK hands.

[Goon2]

It would help to have a read on the players behind you.

With 3 players in the hand at the flop, I don't think UTG+1 is pushing a draw if he knows what he is doing. A raise for value from a flush draw is neutral EV. A bet/raise is a -EV play for an OESD. What's more, if UTG+1 doesn't know what he is doing, I doubt he would be raising unless you had him down as a LP-A or something like that with an astronomical VP$IP.

I am unconcerned, for now, by the cold call by MP3. He's likely drawing but paying too much to do so.

As has been pointed out, the raise makes me worry about reverse domination. It think it's somewhat likely either has KJ, AJ, K9, A9, K6, A6, in which case you are screwed.

I think worrying about a set is seeing monsters, but 2 pair is not out of the question. Many PPers will limp with J9.

UTG+1 has something, and it's possible some or none of your overcard outs are good. I think you count them as no more than 4 outs.

You have the backdoor flush and the VERY unlikely backdoor straight.

At worst I think you're 10.5:1, so you have to call. It's a +EV play. Folding is -EV.

On the turn, your backdoor draws either turn to pumpkins or come alive. They'll determine whether you can consider doing anything except check/fold the turn.