Typical preflop situation

[worm33]

[ QUOTE ]
You raise from CO-1 with KQs, CO 3-bets (who now only has 1SB left on the table), and BB who is a TAG caps, back to you -- what is your play? Another 2+2er and I disagreed on this and I'd like to hear your opinions.
- Mike

P.S. James it's CO-1. CO+1 == button.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im not really seeing how this situation is any different than usual. As long as the BB doesnt drop his capping requirements to 88 99 or AJ because of the all in player, its still an easy fold.

[William Jockusch]

Call and flop a six [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[sthief09]

seems like a great situation to me. you are sure you're behind an overpair or two, which is great. there's no way this thread should've gotten so many responses

[SoBeDude]

I'm really suprised at how much activity this question has received.

It helps underscore the point as to why so few people can show a longterm positive expectation.

Now granted I know my game isn't perfect. I still make too many mistakes. But folding is such a fundamental mistake, anyone who thinks there is a fold here really really needs to go back to hitting the books and focusing on the fundamentals.

-Scott

[joey_qz]

Assumptions:

1. You can only win by flopping a set. If you don't flop a set you fold. You do not play straight/flush draws. This is done to simplify the analysis.

2. When you win, you win 23 SB. A fairly generous estimate.

3. When you flop a set and lose, you lose 9 SB. Fairly conservative.

4. When you flop a set, you win 75% of the time. So, 25% of the time you will run into an overset on either the flop, turn, or river, or AKs or similar hand will run into a straight or flush. This seems fairly conservative since against only 1 overpair, he will hit an overset about 16% of the time with any of the other 4 board cards when you hit a set.

Analysis:

Won with set - Lost with set - No set =

(1/8.5 * 3/4 * 23) - (1/8.5 * 1/4 * 9) - (7.5/8.5 * 2) =

2.029 - 1.765 - .2647 =

0 SB

Conclusion:

Given my assumptions, you will break exactly even with this call. Straight/flush possibilities will swing this to a call, less friendly estimates on pot size for winning and losing can easily swing this to a fold. This tells me that, at the very least, some of you should have given this problem more consideration than just dusting it off as a stupid question. It certainly made me think.

-joey

[blubster]

for me that's an easy fold. but i'm a tight rock.

i like to keep my deviations to a minimum. a better situation is just one hand away.

blubster

[Wayfare]

[ QUOTE ]
for me that's an easy fold. but i'm a tight rock.

i like to keep my deviations to a minimum. a better situation is just one hand away.

blubster

[/ QUOTE ]

And an increase in witrate remains several changes of state-of-mind away.

[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
When you flop a set, you win 75% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you should work on your assumptions.

[SinCityGuy]

Maybe this will end the discussion.

[joey_qz]

Can you provide a more accurate estimate of how often you flop a set and win? And explain why? As I stated in that fourth assumption, one of your opponents will hit a set 16% of the time you hit a set, if he holds a pair. And in this problem you have two opponents of which at least one is very likely to hold an overpair.

I may be wrong, but just telling me I'm wrong

a.) Doesn't shed any light on the situation, and
b.) doesn't convince me I'm wrong

I'm more than open to constructive criticism of my assumptions as my only goal is to get to the *right* answer.

-joey