When to take a shot against a PFR?

topspin · #1 12-07-2004, 02:18 AM

You know the scenario -- you limp from EP with a mid pocket pair, someone raises, many folds, and a relatively small number of people to the flop. You miss your set, but the flop comes all low cards: a good chance that it's missed someone raising with overcards. PRF bets into you, and your position gives you the chance to make the field face 2 cold. Is this always an auto-muck, or do you sometimes take a shot at the raiser?

Example: Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, 4 folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero ...

[b]...folds, or raises/leads the turn assuming MP1 folds and MP2 calls?

rabman · #2 12-07-2004, 02:27 AM

You didn't give us an indication of what type of hands the pre flop raiser will raise with. If he's a loose raiser this may be a good time to bump it. It only costs you an extra SB. If he 3-bets you have another decision to make. Would he 3-bet with just overcards? If so call and see what the turn brings. If not I'd probably fold it right there assuming he has a big pocket pair.

Aaron W. · #3 12-07-2004, 02:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You know the scenario -- you limp from EP with a mid pocket pair, someone raises, many folds, and a relatively small number of people to the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a reasonable place to check-raise it. I'd prefer to have a read (would he auto-bet overcards?). The weak-tight-er, the better. Against a LAG, you've got to be ready to go for a ride if you want to play it.

If you check-raise, then you've got to lead the turn. If you get popped there, it's time to reassess the hand. What are his raising standards? How agressive is he? Did he just pick up a pair or a strong draw? There aren't many easy general answers here.

[ QUOTE ]
Is this always an auto-muck, or do you sometimes take a shot at the raiser?

[/ QUOTE ]

Auto-mucking is far too weak here against a generic player. Pick good spots (raggedy flops and a backdoor draw or two would be nice). And don't go nuts trying to push him out of the pot if he plays back at you. Sometimes he has the hand he's representing.

topspin · #4 12-07-2004, 02:33 AM

Villain in the example posted was unremarkable, about 60% VP$IP over a measly 15 hands or so. Assume a typical fish -- not super LAG or dumb, but not particularly smart either.

Pepsquad · #5 12-07-2004, 03:23 AM

The typical player could (and most often would) lead out with 2 overcards hoping to end it right there. Check-raise and if he three-bets, you're either looking at an overpair, TPTK or - in the specific example you provided - the flop could now have him semi-bluffing the flush draw as well. Either way, if he's a semi-rational player and three-bets the flop I usually fold and move on.
How about calling the flop bet and if an 7, 8, J or spade come on the turn you check-raise? Sometimes that will get the thinking player to fold an overpair, but we haven't established this guy as a thinking player. I'd like to hear others thoughts on this because I feel like I could play this situation better as well.

Transference · #6 12-07-2004, 03:30 AM

Good post, I saw an incredible amount of situations like this today and have been pondering the same thing.

Im finding getting tricky here is profitable when 2 conditions are met:
1) I have a decent read on pfr.
2) I have a decent idea of what pfr thinks of me.

Without either I lean more and more strongly towards just letting it go.

With both I may lead out, c/r, or <gasp> call.
Generally the reads I find most consintetly helpfull and stable are reads on missed flops after a pre flop raise. The utility of the c/r here to me is that many players will respond to it precisely the same way when they hold only overcards. Is this tendancy strong enough to make a play here often with a weak read... there Im ambivalent.

topspin · #7 12-07-2004, 12:28 PM

Obviously a raise works best against a player who is capable of laying down overcards - a TAG or reasonably decent player comes to mind. Of course, unless you've seen the player over many hands, it's often difficult to pin someone down that accurately. In this case, neither player seemed particularly good, but neither seemed particularly out of line either - the table VP$IP was only about 30% or so.

I check the hand hoping to catch a free card, but this is foiled by a raise from the PFR. In this particular hand, I felt that 3 particular points being met made a CR worthwhile:

1. The pot being raised PF made it big enough to be worth taking a shot.

2. Only 1 other player was in the pot, and I could make him face 2 cold and (hopefully) fold.

3. A CR is kind of a semibluff since I have a BD straight and 2 outs to a set.

The way the rest of the hand unfolded didn't work out too well in this case - the other player called 2 cold (!!), and I got 3-bet. I call obviously expecting to fold the turn UI, but manage the mother of all runner-runner suckouts [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Results aside, I thought the hand worth posting to see if this was a good time to have taken a shot; I hate always playing fit-or-fold in these situations.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, 4 folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, MP1 calls, MP2 3-bets, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks.

River: (8.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 11.25 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has 8d 8h (straight, ten high).
MP1 has Qs Ac (high card, ace).
MP2 has Th Td (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: Hero wins 11.25 BB.

VBM · #8 12-07-2004, 01:06 PM

This thread got me thinking yesterday, and so i took this type of shot, b/c the board looked like one that if it didn't help the PFR, it probably looked pretty grim for him. as an aside, please don't chide me on this; i know this was a loose pre-flop call in this position...

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, 1 fold, CO raises, 3 folds, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, CO calls, UTG folds.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO folds.

Final Pot: 5.75 BB
Main Pot: 4.75 BB, won by Hero.
Pot 2: 1 BB, returned to Hero.

zephed56 · #9 12-07-2004, 02:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The way the rest of the hand unfolded didn't work out too well in this case - the other player called 2 cold (!!), and I got 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
I would have certainly tried the same move as you here, but I have often found that the limper will call anyways, so I was wondering what everyone else thought about this play when you can't be sure they'll fold...I mean, the limper is the ultimate calling station.

LeftBack · #10 12-07-2004, 04:16 PM

I deleted my previous reply so I could rewrite it from a different angle.

You pulled off a runer-runner straight. I think you had implied odds to take one off at the flop, and pretty close to pot odds to call the turn with a gutshot and a outs to a weak set. If you had check called, you would have put money into the hand in synch with your improving chances. Good.

The flop raise was a bust. You had like 3.5 outs on a fairly coordinated board, so there wasn't much chance of folding two players. Therefore, I don't think your raise can be considered a semi-bluff. If someone had bet the turn, your draw would have become more expensive to play. Check/call was better in this case, I think.