final table question

[Falker11]

setting: live 100+20 tourny final table at Turning Stone Casino.

6 players

UTG (T18000)
UTG+1 (T10000)
CO (T50000)
Button (T17000)
SB (T15000)
BB (Hero) (T35000)

Blinds 1k 2k with 100 ante

All fold to the button who opens for 7k
SB folds
Hero in BB with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

The button has been opening with many hands in late postion but also makesloose calls sometimes.

I decide to move him in for an additonal 10k more. I know he will fold occationaly but if he calls I'm still most likely in pretty good shape because I have seen him make calls with some pretty inferrior hands earlier on, only to get lucking and win with them.

Result: He snap calls my all in but with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Unfortunatley he hit his ace on the flop, but hey thats poker.

What would you guys have done, was it right for me to risk these chips in this situation? All criticism welcome.

the prize structure is as followes
1 2025
2 1025
3 750
4 450
5 325
6 275

[leykis]

So there is 9600 in the pot and you raise 10K more probably thinking at worst you are a coin flip if he holds two overcards. Also you have folding equity. If you win your the chip leader. If you lose the hand you still have half your chips. I would play this exactly as you did. You were actually a much higher favorite to win given that he only had one over. Like you said he hit his Ace, thats poker. I'm surprised he called as he should have known you had a pair or had him dominated. Oh well though, nh.

[schwza]

not pushing here would be horrible.

[M.B.E.]

The only real question is whether you are better off raising allin as you did, or just calling and betting allin regardless of the flop (stop and go). Given your description of his play you certainly can't fold preflop and you probably don't want to checkfold the flop (even if it is "scary") either.

[schwza]

there is a decent chance you'll have the villain drawing to 3 outs after the flop (when he has an undercard and he misses the flop), and he might fold on the flop in that case, which you don't want.

he doesn't even have odds to call on the flop with 2 overcards, and a stop n go risks letting him get away if he has something QJ and the flop is Axx. (i'm not sure if you'd want to him to call there, actually - your push will be 10k into a 15k pot, so it +chipEV for you if he calls, but might be +tournamentEV if he folds).

and there's some chance that he's raising with the intention of folding to a reraise with a garbage hand like Q2, and the stop n go risks letting him hit a Q, but won't win any more money.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
he doesn't even have odds to call on the flop with 2 overcards, and a stop n go risks letting him get away if he has something QJ and the flop is Axx.

[/ QUOTE ]
Perhaps your conclusion is correct, but your approach to the question is not.

Suppose he does have QJ, and if we stop-and-go he will always fold on the flop if he misses, but he would have called our allin preflop. In that situation clearly either play will give us positive EV; the question is, which play gives us higher EV? It is not relevant that when we stop-and-go the opponent will be "correct" in folding the flop when he misses.

[schwza]

ok, to simplify, let's just talk about chipEV, because i'm not sure if we want a fold on the flop in terms of cashEV.

let me try to flesh out my reasoning a little bit. we're assuming villain has QJ, will fold to stop n go if he misses, and will call a pre-flop push.

in the case that villain flops a pair (or reasonable draw), the hand will play out the same whether we stop n go or push. so we just have to look at cases when he misses.

now, in those times when villain misses, does hero prefer that he had moved in pre-flop, or that he did a stop n go? there will be 7+7+1+0.6 = 15.6k in the pot on the flop. villain has 10k left, and hero covers.

hero will bet 10k, so villain is getting 25.6:10, or about 2.6:1. he has 6 outs twice, for approx. 24% equity, or about 3:1. hero would prefer (in chipEV) that villain calls, but he will fold.

but if villain had pushed pre-flop and villain called, that would be equivalent to villain calling on the flop in terms of EV. it would be the same result - chips in the middle. since we've seen that hero wants villain to call on the flop, he should push pre-flop, thus preventing villain from scoring a minor FTOP coup by correctly folding.

(of course, this is just the analysis for QJ, so it doesn't show anything about what hero should actually against unknown cards).

[theantelope]

My inclincation before reading any of the back and forth between you two was that pushing is clearly better than a stop-n-go, and I think schwza is not only correct in his conclusion but also totally on-point here with his analysis.

[M.B.E.]

OK, I think your approach is correct after all. Sorry.

By my calculation for the case where opponent has QJ, our EV of pushing preflop is about +4600, and our EV of stop-and-going is about +2800. That's chip-EV of course, but the difference is so great that clearly pushing preflop is higher $EV as well. That accords with your analysis. The same should be true considering most other types of hands the opponent could have (e.g. A6, 44).

[HoldingFolding]

Interesting debate. In these types of situations I'm always in Push/Fold mode, but can you provide a concrete scenario where Stop & Go would be correct? Is it very player dependent, are you better off being up against a LAG? Is stack size important?