QQ in LP

[sillyarms]

I think the flop semi bluff was the only questionable play of this hand. What do you think? Did I screw the pooch on this one?


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed)

MP2 ($49)
MP3 ($51.55)
CO ($48.8)
Button ($194.2)
SB ($46)
BB ($48.45)
Hero ($53.05)
UTG+1 ($59.2)
MP1 ($91.5)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $4, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB (poster) folds, BB folds.

Flop: ($9.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets $9</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises to $18</font>, Hero calls $9.

Turn: ($45.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets $20</font>, Hero calls $31.05 (All-In), MP2 calls $7 (All-In).

River: ($103.55) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $103.55

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Hero has Qs Qc (flush, ace high).
MP2 has Ks Kd (full house, kings full of aces).
Outcome: MP2 wins $99.50. Hero wins $4.05. </font>
silly

[Sephus]

i would not have called the flop raise because you are definitely drawing to 11 outs at most and a decent amount of the times he wont pay off if you hit a club, plus you could hit a club and lose to a boat (like you did). everything else is fine.

[sillyarms]

the way I figured it when the hand was happening was that pot was offering me barely better than 4:1 to call the raise. the odds of me making my flush on the next card were 4.2:1. I also thought that my set had about a 50 percent chance of being good if it hit. Should I really be that afraid of a redraw?

silly

[Sephus]

i dont get 4.2 to 1, i get 5.2 to 1. (9 clubs 47 unseen cards). he is going allin on the turn when the club doesnt hit at least 90% of the time, at which point you will not have odds to draw. AA, KK, AK, A9, 99 all have flush redraws. i didnt mean to suggest that it was a terrible mistake, just that i think it's -EV to some extent.

[sillyarms]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont get 4.2 to 1, i get 5.2 to 1. (9 clubs 47 unseen cards).

[/ QUOTE ]

47 unseen cards 9 outs. 47-9 = 38 cards don't help 9 cards do help. 38:9 = 4.2:1. I think it was probabally about a neutral call. If I don't catch on the turn I'm done with the hand. However on the turn he has 9 outs with AA or KK and 6 outs with AK. I guess that in this situation he has AK about 50% of the time and a set the other 50%. so 50% of the time he is a 4.1:1 dog to beat me with a set and the other 50% he is about 6.7:1. He has $13.51 pot equity with the AK and about $20.26 equity with the set. I'm pretty sure I like calling the raise but it's the original bet I made that has me wondering. Thanks for the input.

silly

[Sephus]

derrr, 4.2 to 1. like i said, i didnt think it was a "big" mistake. i think betting the flop is best. maybe a smaller bet? (like 6-7?)

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
i would not have called the flop raise because you are definitely drawing to 11 outs at most and a decent amount of the times he wont pay off if you hit a club, plus you could hit a club and lose to a boat (like you did). everything else is fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummm... I disagree.

I think the flop call was ok. I would've played it differently. Thing is you got all your money in as a 75% fav on the turn. (His bet on the turn was horrid)

Overall played fine. He outdrew you.

I would've bet slightly less than pot on the flop... Here's an interesting situation: Even though you have a mad hand it's very possibly you have the better draw whereas he has the better made hand, yet you're the aggressor. Since you're out of position and it's unlikely he flopped the flush, (the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is out there) I'm either in favor of finding a way to get it all in, (such as just 3betting it in there, 11 outs twice over makes you about a 42% dogish) or keeping the pot small so you can show down. This points to check. If he checks behind I'm prolly betting the turn unless a King non club comes out. If he bets I think this is an interesting spot to C/R all in. If a club falls on the turn I'll pro bably check again, thinking he's either drawing dead or you're drawing dead. (as in no way he checks after you with 2pair/set)

[GimmeDaWatch]

Uhhhhhh, You HAVE to call the min-raise, you played it fine. Had you missed the turn, he most likely would have bet an amount that you would be forced to fold to.