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#2
12-04-2004, 02:24 AM
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Re: ROI expectation moving from $55 to $109
Considering 25.5% is probably significantly above your actualy long term ROI for 50+5s (25% ROI at this level is only really maintained in the long term by the best of the best), I would expect you to have a significant decrease.
You should realize before moving up that 420 tournaments isn't a big enough sample. I am not saying this from what I read, it comes from personal experience and playing close to 2k sngs at the same buy-in these past two months. 
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#4
12-04-2004, 04:56 AM
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Re: ROI expectation moving from $55 to $109
My ROI over 700 $109s is around 14%. I haven't played many 55s myself, but a similarly skilled friend of mine's ROI for 55s is around the same as yours. In other words, it's probably a fair assumption that I'm making very little by playing 109s instead of 55s.
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#5
12-04-2004, 01:56 PM
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Re: ROI expectation moving from $55 to $109
Thanks for the response. I'm very surprised to hear that 25% is considered elite in the 55's. I suppose I have been running very well, but I did have a stretch of -13% over 100 tournies in my sample as well. I plan to stay at 55 at least until I get 1000 tournies in. How many tournaments does it take for you to consider your ROI number fairly reliable for the long term?
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#6
12-04-2004, 06:56 PM
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Re: ROI expectation moving from $55 to $109
ZeeJustin says 5000.
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#8
12-04-2004, 07:30 PM
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Re: ROI expectation moving from $55 to $109
5000 is a good starting point but I"m pretty sure someone (Aleo? or Eastbay?) figured it really was possibly 10,000+ to truly know what your long term ROI is. Does anyone wait that long to move up? I don't know of anyone who does but it's worth having at least a few thousands (rather than a few hundred).
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#9
12-04-2004, 07:45 PM
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Re: ROI expectation moving from $55 to $109
[ QUOTE ]
5000 is a good starting point but I"m pretty sure someone (Aleo? or Eastbay?) figured it really was possibly 10,000+ to truly know what your long term ROI is. Does anyone wait that long to move up? I don't know of anyone who does but it's worth having at least a few thousands (rather than a few hundred). [/ QUOTE ] You can't really talk about sample sizes for "knowing" your ROI unless you're going to be quantitative about confidence bounds. A "small" difference in confidence bounds might be the difference between 1k and 10k necessary sample sizes. eastbay
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#10
12-04-2004, 08:36 PM
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Re: ROI expectation moving from $55 to $109
[ QUOTE ]
5000 is a good starting point but I"m pretty sure someone (Aleo? or Eastbay?) figured it really was possibly 10,000+ to truly know what your long term ROI is. Does anyone wait that long to move up? I don't know of anyone who does but it's worth having at least a few thousands (rather than a few hundred). [/ QUOTE ] there are guys playing and winning in the $109s and $215s who probably don't have 5000 "total" SNGs played. do your really think players like strassa and ZeeJustin grinded out in the $55 to $109s for 5000 SNGs before they took the leap to the $219s? if i recall correctly, Daliman even said he started off playing around the $109s and $215s and built up his online BR from there just off prior poker knowledge. that and, most winner players don't stick around a their present level long enough to log in 5000 SNGs. does Chief911 have 5000 SNGs played at any one level? if i remember correctly, he's been playing online since the beginning of 2004 and is already winning $215s on Stars and Party and $530s on Stars.
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