EV in Sports Gambling (Sorry If this seems Easy)

[Woody09]

I usually play College and NFL football. Just wondering, how do you factor EV in sports betting. And do different bets...parlay, tease, reverse ect...yeild different EV?

[tech]

In short, yes. EV would apply just as with anything else. As one example, you typically have to wager 1.1 betting units to win 1 unit on a sporting event. So, if you picked 55% winners, your EV would be .55*(1)+.45*(-1.1) = .055. Thus your EV for each bet would be .055 units. To increase your EV, either increase your winning percentage or your odds.

There is obviously so much more to it than that, but that is the basic idea. Certainly different bets yield different EV, because the house edge changes as the odds change. Generally parlays, teases, and so on are worse for the bettor because the house has a greater edge.

I know this is a dramatic oversimplification, but it is the basic idea. Hope this helps.

[Woody09]

It does, thank you

[kyro]

now for my dummy question. when you say wager 1.1 betting units to win 1 unit, does that mean 10% vig? I want to make sure I'm understanding the concept correctly.

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
when you say wager 1.1 betting units to win 1 unit, does that mean 10% vig?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sort of. The vig is the sportsbook's edge. It means that you have to give odds (usually 11 to 10) to place your bet. It essentially means that you have to win about 52.4% of your bets to break even, as opposed to only 50% if there was no house take.

Let's say that you wanted to bet the Falcons +1.5 vs. Tampa this week. To bet the Falcons right now at VIPSports the price is -110. In other words, to win $100 you would have to risk $110. Or if you risk $100, you would win $90.91. If you bet the same team in the same game at Pinnacle, the price is -103, meaning you only have to risk $103 to win $100. Or your $100 would win $97.09. So in this case betting the -110 instead of the -103 would be just throwing money away.

[maurile]

[ QUOTE ]
when you say wager 1.1 betting units to win 1 unit, does that mean 10% vig?

[/ QUOTE ]
That's a 4.5455% vig.

If you bet 1.1 units on each side (for 2.2 total units wagered), you will "win" back 2.1 units and the house will keep 0.1 units.

0.1/2.2 = 0.045455

[theTourne]

Can you get -103 lines at Pinnacle on a regular basis?

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you get -103 lines at Pinnacle on a regular basis?

[/ QUOTE ]

If by regular you mean on every game, no. But you will see it often. The prices on the lines at Pinnacle change by the minute sometimes. When they list a line, they list it at -105/-105 (they set 10 cent lines). As the money changes on each side, the prices move to things like -107/103, +104/-114, and so on. Basically it makes some teams cheaper or more expensive without actually changing the line itself.