Inside Straight Draws

[iblucky4u2]

Playing 100 player NLHE tourney, 45 +/- left top 10 get paid, althoght decent $ starts with top 5. I have 2500 vs. avg stack of 3000. Blinds 150-300. I'm in BB with Q9o. There are 4 limpers, SB completes and I check. 6 see flop of J84r. Checked to middle player who bets 500 into pot of 2400. Two callers to me. With 2 to act in back of me, is it worth a call here for the inside str8 shot?

[ZootMurph]

No.

[gcoutu]

Not even close

[TStoneMBD]

esolc neve toN

[adanthar]

Otnay veneay losecay

[iblucky4u2]

I get the message - thanks.

The weird thing was that this hand was the 4th inside str8 draw that I faced. I did not play any of them and every one of them came home. Weird.

[jccookjr]

They only hit when you don't play them. Play them they won't come.

[SossMan]

I would call.

then i would shoot myself and quit poker (in that order)

[zaxx19]

UHHHHH AUTO MUCK IT

[Cooker]

I agree that a call here is a bad idea, but I think an all in semi-bluff is a good play in the specific hand he gives. Would someone with a Jack check this flop? I don't think so. Then you have no worry from the players left to act. Would someone with a Jack bet 500 into a 2400 pot giving the OESD T9 flops good odds to call and outdraw him? Would someone with a Jack just call the 500 bet that could be a semibluff from T9? Again, I think no and no. I bet you are looking at draws and second or third pairs from the bettor and callers, so I think you have some solid folding equity and as many as 10 outs when you get called when you push (and if someone has the J you still have 7 outs). Assuming only a Jack will call, as long as he doesn't have 2 pair already or QJ you have 7 outs and will be getting better than 2 to 1 on your all in bet. At 7 outs you are a 2.6 to 1 dog, so when you factor in folding equity and getting called by the lower pairs which you have 10 outs against, I think pushing sounds pretty good. Especially since it really looks to me like no one has a Jack. Plus, with only about 7 BB left after this hand, you are pretty much in all-in only territory and still way out of the money.

If your bluff works, you more than double up. This puts you in a better spot than if you catch AA the next hand double up. If you get called and outdraw a Jack or 8, you more than triple up. If you get called and don't hit, you can spend the time you would have likely spent getting blinded away and still not cashing, playing something else.

SossMan, you knocked me off the weak tight path, so let me know if you think this is too aggressive at this spot.