AQo UTG+1, analyzing opponents play

easypete · #1 12-02-2004, 10:15 AM

I often see posts in micros (that's why I'm posting it here) that question whether to slowplay flops, or how to maximize profits. This hand, I will post 2 different hands. The first hand, I will post how the hand actually played out. The next hand, I will post the same hand the way it should have been played. I will post my comments along the way.

The button is the player of consequence here... He's a fairly decent player. Not 2+2 calibre, a little looser pf, a little more passive post flop.

Both the SB and the BB are not good.

Original

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, 5 folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, SB folds, BB folds.

Pretty straight-forward to this point.

Turn: (5 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero calls.

This is where I need to think. What does the button have here? I'm thinking K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]... what else could he have? Maybe 25-50% chance he has the J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I decide to call down after the turn raise.

River: (9 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11 BB

The way the hand should have played out... well at least post-flop

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, 5 folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, SB folds, BB folds, Hero 3-bets, Button caps, Hero calls.

Ok... what am I thinking here? I would be thinking he flopped a baby flush... maybe a K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], but now it's not as probable. Maybe even a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] draw w/a weaker [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I have top pair, good kicker and a strong [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Turn: (8 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, Hero calls.

Ok... now i c/r because I'm ahead here.... but the 3-bet now scares me. I'm thinking Kx[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

River: (14 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 16BB

Right or wrong, this is how I would have played both situations post flop. Notice the 5BB difference in pot size.

Results:
Hero has Qs Ah (flush, ace high).
Button has 7s 6s (straight flush, nine high).
Outcome: Button wins 11 BB. NOT 16BB

davelin · #2 12-02-2004, 11:57 AM

If you didn't have the Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] which one would've maximized villain's winnings?

btspider · #3 12-02-2004, 12:08 PM

something seems inconsistent about these two hands.. i can't put my finger on it.. maybe the flop action in hand 2 and the turn action in hand 1.

are you putting him on a flopped baby flush in hand 2 when he raises you or caps?

Hack · #4 12-02-2004, 12:12 PM

I don't understand why the original is better.

Are you saying it's better to be much more aggressive because most of the time you'll have the best of this, and you want to get paid off when you do?

btspider · #5 12-02-2004, 12:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you didn't have the Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] which one would've maximized villain's winnings?

[/ QUOTE ]

hero folds to the turn raise in hand 1.. so villian makes 3 SB's from him postflop.

in hand 2, hero probably calls the flop raise and intends to pulls a stop-n-go on a safe card. heads-up tho, he may again bet and fold to a raise. 2-4 SB's. if hero 3-bets for info/prevent the free card, he may fold to the cap or check-fold the turn. 3-4 SB's.

so its pretty close.

easypete · #6 12-02-2004, 12:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you didn't have the Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] which one would've maximized villain's winnings?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I didn't have the Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], I would have folded to the turn raise.

[ QUOTE ]
something seems inconsistent about these two hands.. i can't put my finger on it.. maybe the flop action in hand 2 and the turn action in hand 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so. With the different flop play, the hands will play out differently. By just calling the flop bet, and coming alive on the turn, I have to give more credit for the villain to have a hand that beats me. What else makes sense?

[ QUOTE ]
are you putting him on a flopped baby flush in hand 2 when he raises you or caps?

[/ QUOTE ]

The raise could be anything on the flop. He could have a draw, 2-pr, set, AJo, flush... There's a whole bunch of hands that the raise represents. The cap on the flop narrows the possible hands down to a flush, a good flush draw (K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]), a set... i dunno... but it is still very inconclusive.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why the original is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really saying that... It ended up better for me, because it gave me more reason to think I had a good chance of being beat on the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
Are you saying it's better to be much more aggressive because most of the time you'll have the best of this, and you want to get paid off when you do?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm saying that the villain would have been better off to be more aggressive, because it really cast a lot of doubt in my mind by waiting for the turn to raise. Yes... aggressive is better (selective aggression). For the villain, he had the best hand on the flop. He should have gotten money into the pot... as much as possible. If the turn hadn't given him the nuts, I would have won the hand. By slowplaying, he may have hurt himself.

btspider · #7 12-02-2004, 02:18 PM

i agree with the play in hand 1.. let him keep bluffing or betting a worse hand. he caps with a better hand if we put in more bets.

hand 2 just feels like overkill given the respect you gave him in hand 1. i can't imagine laying down to the turn 3-bet tho, so the only other lines are bet-callDown or simply check-callDown. i guess I was leaning more towards bet-callDown. when you check the turn and he bets, you probably are ahead 67% of the time (does this % apply when you put in 2 bets?). i'm probably overthinking this knowing the results.

easypete · #8 12-02-2004, 03:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
hand 2 just feels like overkill given the respect you gave him in hand 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so. The story of the hand unfolds differently.

In the first scenario, he just calls the flop and raises the turn. With any player that is decent this will mean I've just got drawn out on w/ the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] more often than anything else.

In the second scenario, a decent player raising the flop gives me reason to put him on many more combinations of starting cards. Put yourself in his shoes w/ 2-pair, a set, a small flush, a K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I would definitely raise the flop here, and I know you would, too, btspider. Most of the 2+2ers here would. This would give us the potential for a freecard (if drawing) and to force the pfr (me in this case) to draw out on him if he does have a set or 2-pr.

I think that w/ the first scenario, it drastically reduces the number of holdings for the villain when compaired to the second scenario.

In the first scenario, I'm losing to the vast majority of hands he could have, but I find out on the turn that I may be in trouble. The first scenario is pretty straight forward.

In the second scenario, I feel that I'm in trouble only after the 3-bet to my c/r on the turn (even w/ the flop capped). I c/r for value on the turn. I think betting here is a good option, but I can't feel that I'm behind more than 50% of the time and I want to maximize my potential winning. If I c/r here and lead out on flop, I get 3 BB (or 1BB)... if I bet here, I may get 0BB or just 2BB. I really think that the second scenario is much trickier than the first.

btspider · #9 12-02-2004, 03:42 PM

yeah, i agree with you. i'm overly focused on the worst of all possibilities happening in hand 2 (the turn 3-bet). i'd love to be able to lay it down there with confidence. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]