A4s flop decision

Redeye · #1 11-30-2004, 01:19 AM

Here is what I thought was a somewhat interesting flop decision. No strong reads here, but we can assume no one is out of hand, so no really laggy players.

Should I raise or call here on the flop? I have a nice gutshot draw, combined with a backdoor flush draw and my 4 (card) outs are probably good. Normally I would raise here, but MP2 raised PF so he probably either had a large PP like KK-TT which I don't want to fold here, or a larger ace, in which I'm getting 3-bet. What action would you take here?

Thanks

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold, MP2 raises, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, BB folds, Hero ???

EDIT: Clicked post before I had actually gotten the post set the way I wanted

Bill C · #2 11-30-2004, 01:57 AM

You have many outs and probably the best hand right now. Your raise is based on large pot equity, giving you +EV. Also you want to cause the preflop bettor to have to make a bad decision. I wouldn't slowplay here, trying to keep him in. There's nothing wrong with winning this pot right here with another bet. And if you keep him in, he may have draws that can beat you.

Just my $.02 worth.

Bill

Grease · #3 11-30-2004, 02:12 AM

I also think you should raise. If you happen to be behind, there are a ton of cards on the turn which will improve your hand. You have a lot of pot equity, so get it in there while you have it.

BWebb · #4 11-30-2004, 02:36 AM

I'd fold preflop. If I did call preflop, I'd call and see what the raiser does.

ErrantNight · #5 11-30-2004, 02:43 AM

you definitely should be playing Axs from UTG+2 on any party table worth playing at... with some exceptions, of course, but in general, this is a pretty easy limp

chesspain · #6 11-30-2004, 03:08 AM

Since BB folded, the only player left to act is the PF raiser. If you raise, he'll likely fold TT/JJ/QQ/KK but may well three-bet you with any big ace. Consequently, I would call, and then reevaluate my options after the turn card is dealt.

ChessMan · #7 11-30-2004, 03:34 AM

A lot of the 2/4 tables I've played lately are tight with 3 to 5 seeing the flop. It's a preflop fold under those circumstances.

My first thought was to call. However, I'm not folding this flop even if it gets capped so I might as well send two bets to the preflop raiser and one back to the SB to see just how serious they are in continuing with the hand.

Their responses, and the turn card, determine what action to take on later streets.

ErrantNight · #8 11-30-2004, 03:41 AM

You're right on that cut-off line from SSHE... but I think your typical table is still loose enough to play these early, even if you're not getting the suggested "6-8" to the flop with any regularity. If you're worried/confused/frequentlyfeelyou'remakingmistakes post-flop with this hand then it'd be a fold for now from those early positions, but you still should be playing these hands more frequently than not.

Redeye · #9 11-30-2004, 02:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Since BB folded, the only player left to act is the PF raiser. If you raise, he'll likely fold TT/JJ/QQ/KK but may well three-bet you with any big ace. Consequently, I would call, and then reevaluate my options after the turn card is dealt.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was exactly my point when posting this hand. If the PF raiser has TT-KK he will probably fold, but if he has a big ace he'll probably 3-bet. I think my pot equity in this situation is in the 30% ballpark depending on what each of the other two hold, so if I do get 3-bet and SB calls, I'm probably not loosing too much.

However, what is the value of buying the button here if SB has a larger ace than me also? If MP2 does have TT-KK, he's probably only going to contribute the 1 bet on the flop and fold to more action on the turn, and this bet isn't totally going to me if SB also has an ace. So folding MP2's smaller pocket pair could be very advantageous if I'm also behind SB, then I could elect to take a free card on the turn if I don't improve. If SB has a diamond draw, I'm charging him more by raising here even though its at the expense of folding the two-outer.

I'm still not sure what I think is better here, maybe it doesn't matter much, but I think its interesting. Anyone have any thoughts?

Moyer · #10 11-30-2004, 02:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You're right on that cut-off line from SSHE... but I think your typical table is still loose enough to play these early, even if you're not getting the suggested "6-8" to the flop with any regularity. If you're worried/confused/frequentlyfeelyou'remakingmistakes post-flop with this hand then it'd be a fold for now from those early positions, but you still should be playing these hands more frequently than not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just have to point out that I think the possiblity of being raised preflop is much more important than whether there will be 3 limpers or 6.