AA vs. JJ flop... advice please?

[GlemZurg]

How would you all play this flop? Fold? Raise? Rip power cord out of wall?

Thanks,
Justin

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (9 handed)

MP1 ($62)
MP2 ($39.33)
MP3 ($99.85)
GlemZurg ($46.5)
Button ($33.65)
SB ($29)
BB ($53.2)
UTG ($127.2)
UTG+1 ($104.75)

Preflop: GlemZurg is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls $1, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls $1, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">GlemZurg raises to $4</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) calls $3.50, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $3, MP2 calls $3.

Flop: ($17) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets $3</font>, <font color="red">GlemZurg ???</font>

[greg nice]

with 4 to the flop theres a good chance youre beat. you have to raise.

[edge]

First of all, I'd raise it to 6 preflop. I prefer playing heads-up with any hand I raise with.

On the flop, the tiny bet looks a lot like trips, but you have to find out. Raise it to about 15, and fold if he raises or calls and the turn is a non-spade, non-Ace.

[BongRips]

Raise to 15 seems a little extreme, I personally prefer raising 3x or so, it allows you to get away easy, and if he is behind, he might still be inclined to call you. A raise to 9-12 seems right here, but one thing is clear, you must raise. Without a read, this is really the only logical thing to do.

[BlueBear]

Must raise to "clarify" the situation. Say 3 to 4 times his bet. Obviously if you have a super read and are against a super-duper-giga-mega-passive-player who NEVER bets without the jack, fold. Of course, calling is unspeakably bad, for the usual reasons.

[edge]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise to 15 seems a little extreme, I personally prefer raising 3x or so, it allows you to get away easy, and if he is behind, he might still be inclined to call you. A raise to 9-12 seems right here, but one thing is clear, you must raise. Without a read, this is really the only logical thing to do.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with a smaller raise is that you're giving the flush draw odds to call.

[BigToga]

Raising to $15 seems right to me - you have to find out how strong he is... While the $3 bet smells like trips, a tricky player also would throw that out there as a defensive bet trying to get odds on his flush draw to hit. I've got to raise here representing the AJ and see what develops...

[amoeba]

I know a raise here is the standard way to play it but I'm not sure I agree with this move.

if he reraises, you have to laydown, if he calls, you still have to slow down on the turn.There is virtually no way you are winning this hand aside from getting runner runner flush or another ace drops.

even if he is making this bet with a flush draw, he will still most likely call your raise.

I like smoothcall, hope for cheap showdown/runner runner/ace, bluff if 3 flush board comes.

[BK_]

i also think that raising is definently not the best play here. calling the flop is

when you raise, you will almost definently get 1 or 2 callers. then what? what happens if a spade drops? what happens if a blank drops?

this is a crappy situation, and raising only makes it worse by increasing the pot. call the flop, then use your position to decide what to do on the turn. folding to a big turn bet is easy, as is betting if a blank drops and he checks to you.

[Brothernod]

I disagree, you need to either raise or fold here.

What are the possible scenarios that are likely to happen.

1) You call, and SB or BB who were planning to slow play decide to reraise since they see someone else interested in the hand. I guess here you'd tend to let go pretty easy, but it's still better to be the aggressor.

2) You call, sb and bb fold and on the turn the bettor bets more. If he makes larger bets each time he could either be trying to continue a bluff or betting for value seeing you hooked. Or he could just be milking you, preparing to go all in on the river.

You either need to raise to find out if he really has anything (only a very strong player would re-raise on a bluff, so him coming back over you can safely respect.

Or you can just straight out fold, accepting you're hand is beat by the expensive limpers.

I agree with the early posters, i'd raise, you wanna play those aces and you do have some outs. With 2 checks before him it's feasible mp2 is just taking a stab at the pot, so you need to find out.