need help! playing a set against possible flush

[naegid]

wow, great post. Thanks for taking the time to write it.

Yup, I have to agree that these tables are not the place to play fancy- the biggest hole in my game is probably getting too fancy. But its still fun, and i dont really have anywhere else to get fancy! I also agree that most players arent paying attention to what you raise. The circumstances here were a little different, i have been at this table with two other players for 3 hours and both have openly commented on everyones play and specifically what people are raising... its mostly lighthearted banter but the information is definitely in their heads should they choose to use it. Of course, this isnt actually relevant to the hand in question.

I have a couple of questions, i think i would of had odds to call the turn raise (i figure i have more outs than you reckon, 13 or 14):

From twodimes.net

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=633338
pokenum -h 3c ac - 5d 5s -- 5c 3h qc 6c
Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing Qc 6c 5c 3h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac 3c 35 79.55 9 20.45 0 0.00 0.795
5s 5d 9 20.45 35 79.55 0 0.00 0.205

So i'm a 4-1 dog?

The pot was .25+.5+2+2+6+12 = $28.75 and its $6 to call which is ~ 4.7-1. If i can get away from the river this is a call right?

I would point out that this is all hindsight, at the time i was just being stupid. This hand marked me deciding it was time for bed, i knew instantly that it was played really badly- hence the post. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Just read your other post... i wholeheartedly agree that the turn raise was uhh suboptimal! Quit reminding me! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I am interested on how much you would bet on the turn, do you think $6 was too much because hands like Queen Jack/King/Ace will fold? This seems sensible, and definitely something i didnt think about when i played it, would $3-4 (as suggested by bigtoga) be a more intelligent amount?

Cheers!

[sangdencre]

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I have a couple of questions, i think i would of had odds to call the turn raise (i figure i have more outs than you reckon, 13 or 14):

So i'm a 4-1 dog?

The pot was .25+.5+2+2+6+12 = $28.75 and its $6 to call which is ~ 4.7-1. If i can get away from the river this is a call right?

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Actually, you have 10 outs to make a better hand than a flush. one of the 3 queens, threes, or sixes or a five. I might think to consider having 8 or 9 outs since he may hold 1 or 2 of these outs. Assuming he doesn't, however, then you have about ~20% chance to hit this on the river.

You might be able to call for implied odds, but the pot odds are against you.

the odds of hitting it are 4.5 to 1 with 45 unseen cards. the pot was +75 cents for the blinds, +4 dollars preflop, +6 dollars on the flop, which i count as 10.75 (your initial post said 12? i dont know where these two extra dollars came from) when the turn comes out. You're 4.5 to 1 to beat a flush and lead out with a 6 dollar bet. the pot is now 16.75 and he raises six more dollars. 4.125 pot odds - fold unless you really think he hasn't made a flush, then call. check fold on the river if you don't hit your card and he bets a crazy amount. Of course, you are definately going to call if he makes a retarded bet of a dollar or so...

As for your turn bet, I think that perhaps it was actually an okay move. It protects your hand from others drawing out on you.

You didn't make many mistakes, but you can see how in NL holdem, one mistake can make you broke.

The best piece of advice I have ever received was to not get caught up in the moment. When players get caught in the moment they focus on their hand and how much money they can get from it, eventually coming to the fast conclusion they are impervious, even when the board pairs twice.

You acknowledged your mistake in your initial post. Don't get caught up in the moment. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


edit: i've been up for over 30 hours...had to correct my math.

[sangdencre]

sorry, ive been up for over 30 hours.

you do have pot odds to call. it was 4.79, not 4.125; sorry.

[naegid]

Ah, my mistake, yes i agree with the outs with the addition of the case 5. The pot on the turn in the original post was a typo.

When you are saying he might have more than one of my outs you're asssuming he doesnt have a flush? In which case i'm quite far ahead or miles behind, i'm not really sure how i would account for that in coming to a decision based on pot odds.

I see that the twodimes simulation takes into consideration the opponents cards using 9/44, i'm not sure which gives the best figures to go with... Anyhow, assuming 9 outs (i.e. he has the 3c) and 46 unseen cards i hit 19.56% (9/46*100) of the time. I suspect you will see 2 high clubs more often in this situation- i could be wrong- but 20% seems a reasonable estimate. Isnt this 4 to 1?

Yup, the pot with my turn bet is $16.75 his call $6 and raise $6 make it $28.75. Therefore i am getting 28.75 to 6 to call, or 4.79 to 1. Making it correct to call then fold on the river if a blank comes.

Am i doing something daft with the maths? Do you think other hands that beat me should be taken into consideration... another set or the unlikely straight?

I think that is probably the best advice i've ever heard regarding poker aswell... doesnt mean i manage to follow it all the time!

[sangdencre]

When you're in dire need of sleep you (in this case, i) fail to see things through all the way.

So yes, he can have at worst one of your outs, not 2; Also it's 4 to 1 if he doesn't hold your out and 4.5 to 1 if he does.

twodimes using the x/44 feature is actually making you think you are better off than you really are. I am guessing it's trying to simulate implied odds? I am not sure.

I wouldn't worry with a straight, he would have had to call with a 4/7 or 2/4 PF. The other hands to beat you that aren't drawing hands are the three sixes or three queens.

three sixes doesn't seem likely but it's still possible. he might have pocket queens but again this is doubtful since he only called you with a flush draw on the board. I would say not to worry about fighting against a higher set unless he gives you undoubtable signs that he has you beat. Otherwise you can't get mad, you gambled, you lost, continue on.

[naegid]

heheh, no worries!

I had missed you edit and other post... doing several things at once.

I really appreciate you taking the time to post. Along with the other posts it has definitely helped me get a better idea of how to play the hand. I agree that the other hands are unlikely.

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you gambled, you lost, continue on.

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I like it.