3/6 JJ Hand - Page 2

TheHip41 · #11 11-27-2004, 11:35 AM

raise, and its not really even that close. if he 3-bets, I cap

mosch · #12 11-27-2004, 12:41 PM

You cannot fear broadway after one bet. He's way more likely to have a pair or two (AK, KQ, KT, complete bluff) here than AQ or Q9.

If you want to make an argument for just calling here, it'd be that the BB is likely to overcall a single bet, and that the CO is unlikely to re-raise without the straight. I obviously wasn't playing in the game, but that post-flop aggression factor doesn't seem like somebody who needs the nuts to raise.

Grease · #13 11-27-2004, 12:52 PM

Pound that pot! For all reasons listed above, you have a monster, and raising is the clearly correct play. I don't think I'd cap it if 3-bet, but I don't think it would be incorrect.

Kevin · #14 11-27-2004, 01:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
hi kevin... i just read your other post about your current bad streak in the party games. this post certainly demonstrates what might be a problem for you. this river is an eeeeeasy raise. not close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have kept the pedal down trying to keep from going into weak tight mode and I have been getting cr'd and 4 bet until the cows come home. It is getting inside my head. I miss a value bet, the next time, I make the bet, the cr comes, insanity is setting in...six weeks...must get better...lol. Oh well, at least there is the the rakeback.

I went over nearly 5000 hands that I saw the flop during this streak and was starting to wonder if I was being too aggressive (for example the straight draw post). The one thing that I found was that 3 of a kind (mainly sets) have won 65% of the time vs 73% for the first 160,000. Straights are winning at 75% of the time versus 83% for the first 160k. If I lose 5 bbs on average on these hands versus winning a 15bb pot on these hands, it seems like that difference is the the gap from where I was to where I am running. Can I get some feedback on win % on 3 of a kind and straights from the group? Was the first 160k abnormally high and am I running about average now?

Not meaning to turn this into a PT thread - just trying to get behind the run. I graph out the sessions and the cum $'s and BB's and about 6 weeks ago, it went from a nice linear graph to a flat line and I have not yet found the root cause other than a bad run of cards - but 6 weeks seems like it would start to work itself out if it was just the cards. So, I think the straight/set win%, paying off turn CR's for 2 more bbs, and maybe ramming and jamming big draws to much on the flop might be my issue (but that seems counter intuitive).

Thanks for all the help with this one.
Kevin

Results Below:
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
5 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, CO calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets, BB calls, CO calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets, BB calls, CO calls.

River: (7.66 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, CO bets, Hero raises, BB folds, CO 3-bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.66 BB
Main Pot: 13.66 BB, between CO and Hero. > Pot won by CO (13.66 BB).

Results in white below: 
CO has Qc Ad (straight, ace high).
Hero has Js Jd (three of a kind, jacks).
Outcome: CO wins 13.66 BB.

Guy McSucker · #15 11-27-2004, 02:31 PM

Hey Kevin,

I can certainly sympathise with your streak and the way it fogs the mind. I feel just the same way at the moment.

You played this hand well. You missed the river cap, which is understandable given your streak, but that's all.

I know it rarely helps cheer you up in the midst of a bad run, but look at the odds here. Your foe can only win with a K on the river, but calls you getting 5.5-1. You're making money here even if he always gets four bets out of you when he hits.

You probably won't give him four bets if the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] falls. He probably will give you some further bets, maybe three or four, if he hits an ace or queen.

Relax for a moment and imagine the riches that would come your way should the board pair on the turn and then he hits his gutshot; or it comes Q, Q, or A, A, or A ,Q, or...

You got yourself into a very profitable situation. Keep doing this. Hang in there.

Guy.

Trix · #16 11-27-2004, 02:36 PM

I think you are ahead alot here, maybe 80% or so. BB looks like he is on a draw, so he probably wont overcall if you just call, so got to raise here.
Just call if he 3bets though, board is scary for him.

I think you will see K9 often here.

Bob T. · #17 11-27-2004, 02:59 PM

I think that you are most likely ahead here, but I think that calling the river might be correct. The opponent left to act has been playing like he is on some kind of draw, and although it was probably a club draw, sometimes it is a straight draw, and AQ, and Q9 just got there. If he isn't on a draw, you can win two big bets, by calling, for the price of one.

If the CO just made a pair of kings, and you raise, he might not pay you off, but if he made a straight, it will probably cost you 3 bets, because you will probably call the reraise. Additionally, you probably won't get a bet from the BB unless he has a hand that you don't want to see.

The only time that you make more by raising here, is when the BB was on a club draw, and the CO made two pair.

I think you get paid 2 to 1 if you call, but you might be laying 3 to 2 of you raise.

johnnybeef · #18 11-27-2004, 03:11 PM

kevin,

i just read your previous post about your bad streak. i have a reccomendation for you....take a week or two off, refresh your self, don't play any poker at all. when you get back you will feel fresh and your mind will not be all cluttered like it is now. this is something that all top notch pros do every once in a while, you will get much better results when you come back.

good luck,
johnny [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

tolbiny · #19 11-27-2004, 03:14 PM

Is there a doctor in the house?
WE have a serious case of WTS!!!

Kevin · #20 11-27-2004, 04:34 PM

thanks for the feedback