Stars 5/10 NL, flop TP + big draw

[kerpowski]

Full 5/10 Stars game

EP ($1390) limps
I ($1120) limp with J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Button ($1K) calls
SB ($550) calls
BB ($3.2K) checks

Flop:

J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB checks
BB bets $90
EP raises to $230


SB seems pretty tight both pre and postflop, haven't played with him before.
EP is good, has moved me off of hands in the past and probably sees me as weak/tight.

Not sure how much I like any of my options here. Flat calling leaves me in a tough spot with 3 left to act and a turn I might not like (but against a player that likely bet v. me no matter what turn card falls). If I push I likely do not have much fold equity vs. a tight player's overbet and a tight reraiser (although with the 12 outs getting the money in here isn't terrible against any hand except a set). Folding with top pair + 12 outs seems like a crime.

Results to follow...

[vector2]

Jesus.....that really is a tough, tough decision. What's really scaring me is that you could be up against one player who already has a made straight or JT/77 and another player who's overplaying a hand like A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I think in this hand there's too many ways you be drawing only to a tie. I'd recommend a fold. Looking forward to the results.

[Robk]

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Folding with top pair + 12 outs seems like a crime.


[/ QUOTE ]

what is top pair worth after that action?

[ QUOTE ]
although with the 12 outs getting the money in here isn't terrible against any hand except a set

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or the nuts. also three way against the nut draw and any other hand. those are the hands i'd be giving them when money starts to fly in a small pot.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

The problem is even if you assume your flush draw is live and that nobody else would make a straight when you do, you can't raise because you'd be pot-committing yourself to put all your chips in with any substantial bet with a hand you're not sure has any outs. Since calling is out of the question with the original bettor still to act, I recommend ditching this hand. It seems like a juicy flop, but you don't even know if your pair is of any use (getting trips might fill somebody up or you'd still be losing to a made straight) and your flush draw may be to a sucker flush.

[riverboatking]

fold.
not really much of a decision.
you might have won this one if you called, there are exceptions to every rule, but if you make calls like this regularly in games of this size, you will be broke pretty quickly.

[greywolf]

Fold and it isnt even close now that i think about it.
You don't have 12 outs here. It's more like 6 outs. You're gonna be looking at hands like KQ of clubs and JJJ or made straight if you take this holding to the river. Remember its a small pot and you are up against decent opposition.

[greywolf]

I also dont like the limp preflop from EP. make it JT or J9s and i like it more. And if there is anything that i learned from playing a ton of PLO it is that NUT outs is way better than non nut outs when lots of money goes in on big draws.

[fsuplayer]

I like a fold preflop and a fold on the flop.

I used to make the mistake of overvaluing pair+flush draws, but I went up against set or better several times, and it made me rethink how strong I play this hand.

Against a HU raiser, this is a great hand, bc you have a lot of folding equity and if he does call with his overpair, then you are usually a coin flip.

In an unraised pot however, this is a clear fold. Flat calling leaves you in a terrible spot on the turn if it blanks, and reraising all in will get called by a set or made straight, all of which you may be a big dog to.

[ObnxNole]

Fsuplayer nailed it on the head and obviously he has been taking lessons from me. Early position is obviously trying to protect his hand by raising big. Flat calling leaves in a horrible spot and even if u call and catch another club you don't know if it's good. Plus, you only have a few dollars invested in the pot. I like a fold in this spot especially in an unraised pot.

[kerpowski]

FSU,

I'm glad someone mentioned reraising all-in as an option as I believe that pushing and folding are closer than most people are making them out to be. I do agree that both calling and reraising are bad here.

This is why I considered pushing the flop. It is very unlikely that SB and EP will get all the money in if one player has the nut flush draw and the other a set/straight with this action.

If SB has the nut draw he can't call my push so he's only calling with a big made hand. If EP has the nut draw it is unlikely that he would raise the SB on the flop with three to act behind him. Why shut the rest of the field out of the pot and possibly face a reraise HU against the SB?

The SB likely has a somewhat strong made hand or a good draw. EP has a very strong made hand (2 pair+). He is capable of laying down two pair. In this hand, best case for me is that they both have strong enough hands to get all the money in on the flop (set vs. set or straight). If that happens I have more than 1/3 pot equity. Second best case is that they both fold to the push. Worst case is that one folds and the other calls with a big made hand.

In the third case if EP has a set I'm a 39:61 dog, 43:57 against the nuts or two pair. The important question is whether the dead money already in the pot, the times both their stacks get in with made hands (rare enough almost not to matter) and the times both fold make up for the times I'm called by one as a big dog.

The math works out closer than one might think and I'm interested to see what people have for assumptions on the % both fold to a push (given my reads).