5-10 big pot at the Bike

[Utah]

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No way. There's only one unlikely draw on the flop, so if you think your hand is good enough to push on the turn, push on the flop.

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You cant push the flop without massively overbetting the pot. However, I did advise reraising the flop.

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Pushing the turn is a losing play in this spot

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How so? What hands do you put him on? You are in favor of giving him a free shot at beating you on the river if he is behind. What happens when a scare card comes and you check and he scoots all his money into the middle?

As noted, the opponent is a better player with position. Pushing takes both those advantages away.

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Because he's a very good player, and he wants it to look like he's trying to push you off. He knows that he won't get paid off against a skilled opponent, unless they also have a very good hand, so he loses nothing by raising here. Well, he loses riverboat if he was semi-bluffing, but given this flop and his picture of riverboat as "a little weak-tight," that's not too likely a scenario.

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Respectfully, I disagree with this analysis. 2,2 is not impossible, but I still think it is very unlikely. The problem with the "he wants to look like he is trying to push you off" play is that it is far too likely that the bettor does not have a big enough hand to continue. Therefore, it is too likely to achieve exactly what wasnt intended - to cause the other player to fold, even if the original bettor suspects that is what the expert is doing.

[daryl logan]

I was just checking to confirm your identity...

I thought I remembered that hand ... but I swear that he turned over 9-2.

[riverboatking]

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How so? What hands do you put him on? You are in favor of giving him a free shot at beating you on the river if he is behind. What happens when a scare card comes and you check and he scoots all his money into the middle?

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what in your mind is a scare card?
a deuce is the only one i can think of...
in my original post i already explained why i didn't put him on AJ so a four doesn't bother me that much...

[Utah]

Hello,

I just found your comment on A,J. Sorry, I didnt see it because it was in a followup post by you. Just because he ran that play with the A,J once doesnt mean he runs it every time, especially if he was caught doing it once already.

Cards that I dont like are: K,Q,10,9,4 possibly an A (if he was on more or a bluff like A,5 or still the potential A,j). These cards all potentially give him a better hand. The worst thing though is that it puts you in a very difficult situation if he puts you to the test for all your money on the river when you have a hand that you might not be so comfortable with after the river card.

If you are uncomfortable going against this guy then I would rather be the one putting the test to him on the turn. With an allin bet you take any play out of him and I like the chances with the 2 pair.

Also, even if it is only a 3 outer, why give him a free shot at it on the turn? What does your turn call accomplish? I dont think a)dont want to play a big pot and b)worried about 2,2 are good enough reasons not to raise. Curious, what do you think he would have done if he were in your shoes?

[riverboatking]

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If you are uncomfortable going against this guy then I would rather be the one putting the test to him on the turn

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while i have the most respect for this guy out of everyone, if my cards warrant it i will go all in vs. anyone. it pretty much boils down to what play i think will win me the most money most of the time.

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Also, even if it is only a 3 outer, why give him a free shot at it on the turn? What does your turn call accomplish?

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as i mentioned earlier, this guy is damn good at reading hands, i think that a raise on the turn will only be called by a better hand (looking to trap me), while there is a good chance i may be raised by a weaker hand (forcing me to lay down a winner).
i think a smooth call on the turn disgues the strength of my hand effectively, as most players would reraise with two pair.

i know that from playing online, alot of players have been conditioned to go to extremes in order to avoid giving free cards, even when in all likelihood there are only two or three cards that can hurt you.

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The worst thing though is that it puts you in a very difficult situation if he puts you to the test for all your money on the river when you have a hand that you might not be so comfortable with after the river card.

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in this case if i smooth call, he still has no idea what i have, and in most cases i will not be facing a huge overbet on the river, but rather a value bet, either from a worse hand which he thinks is good, or from a better hand looking to get paid.

if i reraise the turn, the pot is now much bigger on the river, and now i face a much tougher decision.

i agree that there is more then one way to play a pot, especally in this case, which is why i posted the hand.
and i appreciate all the response, i am by no means trying to degrade your opinions, or suggest that my line is superior, just trying to delve deeper into what i feel is an interesting discussion.

[Utah]

I agree that this hand is very interesting and I might have been wrong.

I spent an hour running some EV calculations and it favors only calling on the turn.

Here are my basic assumptions:

His hand 2,2 = 30%
His hand two pair = 10%
His hand = 1 pair = 60%
He folds to a move in bet on the turn with less than trips
He doesnt bet the river with less that 2 pair
he bets the river with 2 pair 50% time

Lets look at the simpliest case first:

You move in on the turn:
If he folds 70% of the time = +$770 for you
If he calls with trips 30% of the time = -$1400 for you (calculated as +2800*.09 + -1800*.91)

EV = $350 for you

Now lets look at the more complex case if you just call:

A) He has one pair. He hits .07 percent of the time. Lets say he bets pot when he does hits and he checks behind you when he doesnt hit. Lets assume you call when he bets. This leads to an EV of 950 (1100*.93 + -1100*.07).

b) He has trips. You hit your 4 outer .09 percent of the time. Lets assume all the money goes in when you do. Lets assume that you dont hit and he bets pot and you call. This is -750 = .91*-1100 + .09*2800

c) Lets say he has two pair. This is the most complex because he can hit his discreet two outer, you can hit your discreet two outer, or you can both hit the common two outer. Additionally, he might bet his two pair when you both miss (I figured 50% of the time given he was right on the cusp of whether to bet). I will leave out all the calculations (I can supply them if you want) but I come up with an EV of +$1400

So, total EV = .6*950 + .3*-750 + .1*1400 = $485

However, if he can outplay you then moving in on the turn might be better. For example if he is capable of pushing you off on the river with an allin bet or if he is capable of getting away from his set when you hit your 4 outer.

Also, I was pretty liberal with his odds of having a set. If you get to around 15% the EVs wash.

[vector2]

I've been gone for a couple days so I'm replying before I read any of the other posts (sorry if I say something that someone else already mentioned).

I absolutely cannot believe you just flat-called him after he saw what you did on the river and made that bet. There's no way in hell you're trailing after he sees you ready to showdown and then makes a huge bet. If he has 2-2, he's value betting the river no matter what (and in this spot it looked like he was genuinely about to check). It looks like he has a garbage two-pair and has put you on J, good kicker. I know it sounds risky as hell, but based on his actions, I'd re-raise all in on the river (I think J-9 or a set is very, very unlikely).