Cardplayer Analysis of SSHE example

[slickpoppa]

Hand No. 2: You have the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the big blind. Four players limp in and the button raises. The small blind folds and you call, as do the other players. There are 12.5 small bets in the pot. The flop is: 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], giving you middle pair and a backdoor-straight draw. It is checked to the button, who bets. What do you do?

Book Answer: Raise. This is better than calling. You may have a better hand than the preflop raiser. He may have a big pair or A-10, but he could be betting unimproved overcards like A-K. More importantly, raising improves your winning chances. You would like to see many different hands fold. If you have the best hand, in this large pot, anyone with as little as one overcard to your pair of sevens threatens you. Even without the best hand, you still want many hands to fold. Obviously, you would like anyone with a better hand to fold. If you raise, someone with a better 7, a weak 10, or pocket eights or nines may fear that your hand is stronger than just middle pair and fold. Even if it happens only rarely, the prospect is compelling; inducing a better hand to fold in a large pot is a coup. More subtly, you would also like anyone with a 6 or 9 to fold. If you catch an 8 on fourth street to make two pair, anyone with either of those cards will pick up an open-end straight draw. With a hand this weak, your winning chances improve significantly with every player who folds. When the pot is large, invest extra bets if doing so improves your chance to win.

My Thoughts: In comparing this hand with the first hand, raising is less clear despite the slight improvement in pot odds. This is another situation in which it is assumed that a typical small-stakes player will bet into a big field with an unimproved A-K. This time, the field is even larger with five opponents. Furthermore, there is a two-flush on the table, so a raise will not eliminate flush draws. While it is true that you would like to see many different hands fold, the likelihood of it making any difference is quite small, because a multievent parlay is required as follows: (1) one of these hands must exist, (2) the person holding such a hand will call if you do not raise, (3) that person will fold because you do raise, (4) you must improve, (5) they would have improved to a better hand, and (6) their better hand goes on to win the pot. Without getting bogged down in mathematics, the likelihood of this parlay occurring is the product of all of these individual probabilities. This usually results in a very small number, often less than 1 percent.

This was one example in SSHE that I always thought was kninda questionable. Anyone want to defend SSHE?

[BSXX]

I have not read the entire book yet, so I thumbed through it to find this problem, but can't. Where is it?

[Luv2DriveTT]

Nor can I. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[kross]

Page 148, Playing Aggresively with Marginal Hands

[DonkeyKong]

p. 148

Miller notes: "with a hand this weak, your winning chances improve significantly with every player who folds."

the 2 sevens are solid outs
3 8's are partial outs (8 clubs is not an out in my book)
you do have a back-door straight draw but the 2-flush detracts from this value in such a multiway pot

net net, this hand hand has 4 to 4.5 outs in my estimation and the pot is laying you a very attractive 13-1.

To call or to raise?

Will others fold if you raise? The pot is large so investing extra bets makes sense IF it improves your chance to win... but who will fold live cards in a pot this big? Aren't we assuming players 'go too far' with their hands (call too much)?

[daeva]

This probably isn't completely accurate, but you get the idea.

Let's pretend these are everybody's hole cards.

8d 7d
ah kc
qd 8h
3s ts
jh 5d
6c 4h

Using twodimes you can find the 87 will win 9.31%.
If nobody folds at all then at the end there will be 21.25BBs. You will invest 2.5bbs for everytime you don't make your hand by the end while winning about 2bbs for a net loss of 0.5.

if you raise and two hands fold

8d 7d
ah kc
folded qd 8h
3s ts
jh 5d
folded 6c 4h

You win 20.12%. At the end there is 18.25BBs. You invest 3bbs to win 3.65bbs for a gain of .65bbs.

[BSXX]

My response will not be very mathematical, but I have to agree with the raise based on the reasons Miller has given. At the point he recommends a raise, the pot is big, but not so big (only 13.5 small bets) that some of those with marginal/weak hands or draws will not fold to a double bet. You are in the big blind, this flop could have easily hit you for all they know. The original raiser (which could easily have just been a position raise) could be betting out of compulsion since it was checked back to him. If another straight or flush card came, I can see the button bailing out if someone else bets into him. On the other hand, if several others call or re-raise, you can get away from it at minimal cost.

[slickpoppa]

Well, a raise might get the Q8 to fold, but I doubt anyone would fold the 64. This example seems to be the best case scenario; no one has a T, overpair, or a flush draw. To be more realistic, I think you would have to take those into account.

[Ed Miller]

This example seems to be the best case scenario; no one has a T, overpair, or a flush draw. To be more realistic, I think you would have to take those into account.

Someone does have a ten... which makes it anything but a best-case scenario. The best-case scenario is one where you have the best hand. When you do, raising is far and away the best play... so much so that it justifies taking slightly the worst of it for an extra bet those times you don't have the best hand.

[DonkeyKong]

Hi Ed, when called on this raise by a few, on what cards would you lead out and bet the turn? Are you stuck going to the river on this hand because of the size of the pot? If re-raised on the flop, you can't now fold for 1 more bet and then you check/call the turn if unimproved?

When do you decide to get away from a hand like this (marginal) in a large pot?