Line on river w/set, unlikely straight on board

[Aukai]

Villain in this hand is LA-P, thinks he plays better than he does. VPIP 32, PFR 5.4. Tries to be tricky sometimes, is currently whining about losing his AA, which he didn't raise pre, to a river 2 pair.

Just call this river, or should I 3-bet?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, SB calls, MP1 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls.

River: (17.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 21.50 BB

[jayrutz2]

I think Cutoff most likely has As up. 1) He is passive preflop and on flop 2) A wakes him up, but he isn't strong enough to cap 3) Why would he wake up on turn.

I think if you are behind, it is probably to pocket 9s. Any read on him? Sure would help here. I DON'T see the staight as any possibility.

Net Net, here's my read

As or As up - 75%
Trip 9s -10%
Trip 4s - 10%
Stainght &lt;5%

Given that I think you are ahead 85% of time, I 3 bet and call cap...