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#132
11-24-2004, 02:54 PM
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Re: Bonus Whores delight...Got this email today
[ QUOTE ]
I think Jacks or better has an edge of about .55% as long as you max bet each time, not much worse than BJ. This is probably worth a shot. [/ QUOTE ] While factually this is true, a large portion of your EV as a player comes from hitting the royal flush, which won't happen during the time you are clearing the bonus. So, either the house edge is much higher or the standard deviation is huge, take your pick. 
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#134
11-24-2004, 03:04 PM
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Re: Bonus Whores delight...Got this email today
Checking out the appendix on the Wiz, it seems to say that you need at least a 500 bet bankroll just to get a 50% risk of ruin, is this right? Its seems pretty high to me, but if its correct its not really a chance I'm willing to take.
Edit: The 50% RoR is for infinite play, not sure how the $4800 WR factors in. Casino war has an edge of ~2.3%, seems like the variance there would be about on par with BJ, but the EV drops to about 100. Again, with the increased RoR, not sure if this is worth it. Thoughts?
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#135
11-24-2004, 03:15 PM
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Re: Bonus Whores delight...Got this email today
Did a little more investigating games, and I think I am going to try it with Pai Gow poker. It has a 1.46% house advantage. Waiting on my money from Party then I am gonna give it a try.
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#136
11-24-2004, 03:23 PM
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Re: Bonus Whores delight...Got this email today
[ QUOTE ]
Did a little more investigating games, and I think I am going to try it with Pai Gow poker. It has a 1.46% house advantage. Waiting on my money from Party then I am gonna give it a try. [/ QUOTE ] A further advantage to paigow is most hands result in pushes reducing your variance farther. [ QUOTE ] While factually this is true, a large portion of your EV as a player comes from hitting the royal flush, which won't happen during the time you are clearing the bonus. [/ QUOTE ] This statement is false. While, yes, video poker is highly variable, EV is EV, your ROR is quite high. But your error is this: just because you will lose while trying to get a royal flush, and you will only get a royal flush once in every X trials, does NOT mean that you will get a royal flush on exactly the Xth hand, nor prior nor later. It is well within the realm of probability that you could get a royal flush on your first hand, and if you do, it is still possible to get a royal flush on the next hand as well.
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#137
11-24-2004, 03:25 PM
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Re: Bonus Whores delight...Got this email today
Puffin, you haven't deposited yet? If you haven't, I'd really discourage you from doing so. In many peoples' eyes, this casino has behaved fairly dishonestly, and at the very least much of the value is gone from this offer. If you're new to casino whoring there are many better offers out there, and more trustworthy places to put your money.
If you have already deposited, I guess you already know this [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#138
11-24-2004, 03:28 PM
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Re: Bonus Whores delight...Got this email today
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] While factually this is true, a large portion of your EV as a player comes from hitting the royal flush, which won't happen during the time you are clearing the bonus. [/ QUOTE ] This statement is false. While, yes, video poker is highly variable, EV is EV, your ROR is quite high. But your error is this: just because you will lose while trying to get a royal flush, and you will only get a royal flush once in every X trials, does NOT mean that you will get a royal flush on exactly the Xth hand, nor prior nor later. It is well within the realm of probability that you could get a royal flush on your first hand, and if you do, it is still possible to get a royal flush on the next hand as well. [/ QUOTE ] Fine. Since you get a royal flush every what? 250,000 hands, my statement that it "won't" happen is false. What's correct is to say that it "won't happen to you. " [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [edit: if you're reading my words to suggest that I think that a royal flush is "due" or that the events are not independent, you're absolutely right. What I'm saying is that if you're going to play the minimum number of hands to clear the bonus, your chances of hitting the royal flush during a shorter session are very low and you'd be better off just ignoring the possibility and thinking of VP as having a bigger edge than it mathematically does]
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#139
11-24-2004, 03:47 PM
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Re: Bonus Whores delight...Got this email today
The chance of a royal flush is about 1 in 40000. With 4800 WR you need to play about 4000 hands at $1.25 each so it isn't that unlikely. I just finished at $420 clearing the bonus with video poker.
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#140
11-24-2004, 03:48 PM
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Re: Bonus Whores delight...Got this email today
I recieved this email too. I called support and offered to email them my driver's license and a recent cable bill. They accepted, I emailed them the scans (I got them scanned a while ago for another bonus.)
They sent me a response saying everything was A.OK, and my cashout should procede un-hinderd. We'll see, but so far it looks good. FWIW, I did the bonus very quickly after this thread was posted.
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