|
|
#31
11-22-2004, 05:42 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: The Flop...
Hand 1 is good.
Hand 2 no way I call this without *at least* 15-1. The way I see it, you have 1.5 outs to a non-nut flush, and 1 out to the str8. Fold this. No brainer? Am I missing something? 
|
|
#32
11-22-2004, 05:42 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: The Flop...
Hand 1 is good.
Hand 2 no way I call this without *at least* 15-1. The way I see it, you have 1.5 outs to a non-nut flush, and 1 out to the str8. Fold this. No brainer? Am I missing something?
|
|
#33
11-22-2004, 06:22 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: The Flop...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Why can't your 7's and 6's be good? Discounted - yes, completely removed - nah. [/ QUOTE ] I was thinking about this, and you are right and I am wrong. I discounted them too much. A proper analysis would be to to take the likelihood of the hands that someone would raise with from SSH (assume proper play for ease of calculations) I believe it is AK-AQ, AA-99 and ??? but then it would be easier to see exactly how much to discount your outs. Obviously you are only worried about the pocket pairs but would have to take all hands into consideration. Someone who is better than me would have to do the calculation lol. [/ QUOTE ] Would the math be as simple as: 16 ways to make AK + 16 ways to make AQ divided by 16 ways to make AK + 16 ways to make AQ + 6 ways to make AA...6 ways to make TT so 32/68 = 47% so discount the 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] outs by 50%? 6 outs * .5 = 3 outs 3 outs + 2.5 outs = 5.5 outs or about 8.5%.. so the odds are actually there for a call considering it is a big pot. Anyone?
|
|
#34
11-22-2004, 06:30 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Calling/cold-calling with middle suited connectors: serious leak??
If coldcalling in hand 2 with Axs is worse than doing it with 87s, it's worse by a tiny fraction of a BB. It can't ever be much worse.
With Axs you're calling mainly for the value of the nut frush and a little for the value of the A. Also, if you hit two pair is more likely to win and less likely to be counterfeited. With 87s you're calling for the value of the frush and straight. You will (almost) never win with top pair 8's and two pair can be counterfeited.
|
|
#35
11-22-2004, 06:40 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: The Flop...
Yes, good analysis.
We have no read of the raiser in the original post, but we could add/remove some hands depending on that read. Also, a read on the opponent's postflop play would be nice too, we might be able to get a free card by raising.
|
|
#36
11-23-2004, 02:43 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: The Flop...
[ QUOTE ]
Would the math be as simple as: 16 ways to make AK + 16 ways to make AQ divided by 16 ways to make AK + 16 ways to make AQ + 6 ways to make AA...6 ways to make TT so 32/68 = 47% so discount the 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] outs by 50%? 6 outs * .5 = 3 outs 3 outs + 2.5 outs = 5.5 outs or about 8.5%.. so the odds are actually there for a call considering it is a big pot. Anyone? [/ QUOTE ] I was thinking you have to discount the 6 and 7 even more. Basically discount them by another 15-20%, because an A,K,Q falling would eliminate these as outs from a pair perspective. Making the call incorrect. I would love to hear Ed Millers thoughts on the 2nd hand.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
