Another bubble "do you make that call"

[Burno]

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Yeah. Call, 63% of the time take 9% of his stack, and put him in his place, and skyrocket your stack to over 900 chips!.

Not to mention the great note you can write even if you DO lose; "Plays his stack very well". Tuff to get that without calling.


This is what happens when $10+1er's don't learn the game before dishing out advice.

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That's great. He was asking for opinions, so I gave mine. It's not a call I would make all the time or even most of the time but sometimes you gotta through the numbers out the window and just use judgement. It's players like you who count every digit of every probality that get eaten alive by most pros.

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You are so right. Daliman is horrible at SNG's. He plays so badly people post his hand histories on websites for public ridicule.

[joker1976]

By folding, over 80% of the time someone will push next hand, I think you should call and make it 3 way, then "shorty" will lose at least 70% of the time, if he wins, you still have about 40% chance to beat the other stack 2 way and assume 40% survive next bind, , you and "shorty" will be about equal. Your overall chance of ITM will be 0.7+0.3*0.4*0.4*0.5 = 0.724. If no one pushes next hand, you beat "shorty" 50% of the time, and still have a chance to survive next blind if you lose, your chance will be 0.5+0.5*0.4*0.5 = 0.6, in average your ITM by folding is 0.8*0.724 + 0.2*0.6 = 0.6992. If big stack still pushes with any two cards, you call to make it 3 way, your chance is still 0.67+0.33*0.5*0.4*0.5 = 0.703. Your chance of ITM is close to 70%. By calling and win, you still have at least 10% chance OTM, 0.63*0.9 = 0.567. The extra chance to win 2nd most likely can't make up the difference.

[rjb03]

Post deleted by rjb03

[tigerite]

He means the next hand.

[Gigabet]

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You are so right. Daliman is horrible at SNG's. He plays so badly people post his hand histories on websites for public ridicule.

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There is a public forum for this? How did I miss it, I thought I was the only one who ridiculed his hand histories.

[eastbay]

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That's great. He was asking for opinions, so I gave mine. It's not a call I would make all the time or even most of the time but sometimes you gotta through the numbers out the window and just use judgement. It's players like you who count every digit of every probality that get eaten alive by most pros.

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Possibly one of the worst posts of the week.

What do you base your judgment on, if not the numbers which control the outcome of the hand? SnGs are a different game, and the later stages are about knowing the percentages. Period.

eastbay

[Daliman]

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After I posted I realized this was just a STT just outside the money. I would probally fold in this situation, but if it was already down to 3 I would definately make the call.

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Fair enough. Also, realize this IS the STT forum though,

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It's players like you who count every digit of every probality that get eaten alive by most pros.


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Cue Nipsey Russell....


RRRIIIIIIGGGHHHHTTTTT!!!

P.S. I dont count EVERY digit, just 2. Eastbay is the one who counts every digit and gets eaten alive by us pros. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Daliman]

Yes, but there is probably a better than average chance his hand is worse than 63% here. Believe it or not, I actually don't know the value vs random cards of AT, or even most hands..(I have general ideas, but not near exact #'s). You got this somewhere in your bag of tricks, Easty? 63% just seems a bit high, i'd think more like 60, but i'd be guessing.

[tigerite]

Oh I agree, and I think 0.5 of a % is too low to even consider calling anyway. In this position I'd be looking for at least 3% and probably even 5%.

[eastbay]

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P.S. I dont count EVERY digit, just 2. Eastbay is the one who counts every digit and gets eaten alive by us pros. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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False on both counts, but there's no such thing as bad press.

eastbay