Hand to Talk About

[La Brujita]

It looks from the description that the hero acted in turn.

[jimdmcevoy]

Woops I misread the original post, disregard all I said.

[NabO]

I think the hero did well by folding. The problem here is obviously the BB preflop call. Think about what kind of hand you need you all tights-aggressifs players to play against a reraiser and a maniac when out of position. My read on the BB is: AK as the only possible connector, TT or better. But he would have bet with TT, JJ probably check raise with QQ, KK , AA and check fold with AK. Then raising for our hero is good only if the maniac bets a non pair hand AND if the BB has AK. I think calling would have been a good option but he probably knew that that call will cost him 2 bets...
excuse my poor english..

[stonecoldnuts]

interesting view but a 3-bet and fold on a 7-high flop i don't think is correct. if the BB raises your questions are answered for the most part, but folding to a "maniac's" bet is wrong.

[disjunction]

(Note: I'm just a Foxwoods $4/$8 player but this is the type of hand I need to understand at that level, so I'm taking a stab).

Suppose Hero had KJo. I'd grit my teeth at this table and make the preflop reraise with this hand because it's supposed to get me heads-up. On the flop, the maniac is betting whatever his maniac logic is telling him to bet, but the problem is that at this point my call is that it's 70-80% likely that the BB has the best hand (Ace high -- with roughly offsetting probabilities of suited connectors or big pairs or a small pair that he's misplayed so far on the flop), so the Hero must either call if he's getting odds to chase, or raise to maybe get him out.

If the Hero calls getting 11-1 odds on on his 6/45 odds of hitting, will it dawn on the BB that his Ace high is good? I don't think a call by the hero mimics an overpair at all. Therefore I consider the probabilities:

BB folds: 10%
BB calls: 40%
BB checkraises maniac calls: 25%
BB checkraises, maniac reraises, BB calls: 10%
(4 bets): 15%
(I'll ignore 5-bets if that's the cap)

So Hero has a 50% chance at getting 11-1 odds to hit a King or Jack , a 25% chance of 6.5-1 odds, a 15% chance of 5-1 odds, a 10% chance of 4-1 odds.

Taking a weighted average, the Hero is getting only 7-1 odds. Implied odds roughly offset the chance that spiking a King won't help. So my surprising conclusion is the fold is correct, unless you think I seriously overestimated the BB's hand or the chance that he'd checkraise it. The more I think about it, the more I think the BB bets Ace high on the flop to chase the Hero out when the maniac raises, so take the above analysis for what it's worth. I still think it's closer than people may think.

(Edit: oops, I forgot the options of calling and folding to a check-raise, or calling and folding to a checkraise and 3-bet! I'm having a brain-freeze right now so I can't do the odds of those, but I *think* the former is out of the question because now your chances of staying in and hitting are 15-1, but he latter might help).

[NabO]

We have the same analysis of the hand. I think that even with an AK hero have to fold. We don't have either to underestimate the maniac's hand: he may have a big hand too ( very unlickely ) but even if he has one of that garbage hands he's got 35% to already have the best hand over hero

[disjunction]

NabO,

On AK, our analysis differs. AK is somewhat likely to be the best hand. I either call or raise AK if I'm the hero. I think you're overestimating both the maniac's and the BB's hand. With AK, we have odds to chase both the maniac and the BB unless they have a monster.

[rory]

I can't think of a hand that the 'Hero' should play this way in the absence of a big tell.

Maybe he clicked the wrong button. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[disjunction]

By the analysis in the other post:

(1) Calling and folding to a BB raise is bad because it gives you a 1-in-14 chance of staying in and hitting your overcards in a 12-bet (on average) pot.

(2) Calling and folding to a raise and reraise is neutral because it gives you a 1-in-10 chance of staying in and hitting your overcards, costing you 1.33 bets in a 13-bet pot.

[Men the Master]

Either hero saw a tell that maniac had 72 or he was scared of BB. BB could have overpairs (99 to QQ). Preflop, I put hero on an isolation reraise with a hand like AJ or A9s.

Hero was scared of BB.