Bankroll theory applied to SNG's

[e_fermat]

Yes. I agree with your corrected numbers. Perhaps the utility of Kelly diminishes when the edges and ROI's are so high compared to other forms of advantage play. I can't imagine someone in the $109's or $215's (or at any level for that matter) with these types of returns playing "correctly" with only 6-12 buy-ins. Intuitively it doesn't seem correct and I can't imagine the simplification of 'c' making that much of an impact. I would think though for players with lower ROI's and ITM% then this may make some sense.

I think the other problem with taking this statistical approach is that a small breakdown in skill due to tilting, fatigue or other factors can have a huge impact on results. While blackjack players may suffer bad beats, it is unlikely to have as significant an impact as on a poker player.

[eastbay]

I think the Kelly idea doesn't work very well at all in the context of SnGs.

The reason is that the Kelly criterion is based on a fixed edge, independent of the size of the bet. This is obviously a very poor assumption in SnGs, where many players would have an edge of 20% at 20+2 but an "edge" of -10% at $215.

No, Kelly is just not useful here.

eastbay