How do you play this (AJs on the button)?

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

Playing a live $1/$2 NL game, $250 max buy-in. I have played very tight and seen very few hands in two hours. I have a little less than the max buy-in in front of me.

I am on the button and get dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Three limpers to me, I make it $12. SB and the three limpers call. (Pot approx $62, 5 players)

Flop comes 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Checked to MP who bets $25, one fold, CO calls, I call.
SB raises to $100 and then it is folded around to me.

SB has me covered and is a tight player. The table has been relatively wild and we have both sat out most of the hands.

It is $75 to call with a pot of over $200 -- I have about $190 left in front of me.

What range of hands would you put him on? How would you respond?

[amoeba]

well, I would have raised the $25 bet.

being that you flat called, I put this guy on a set and fold it.

[swolfe]

my money is on set of 9's. fold...

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

Is a set the only possibility? If he sensed weakness from the other two players in the pot (as I did), is it not possible that he has top pair or an over pair (or possibly two pair)?

Edit -- the bettor on the flop is a player that will frequently bet without a made hand. The caller was a very loose passive player.... just to add some more info.

[amoeba]

overpair is very possible. 2 pair or A9 is not that likely based off your description of SB.

I don't think you can count a J as an out if you decide to push/fold.


Ace might be an out.

that said, I would be more likely to fold here as with so many callers, there might be someobdy else on the flush draw thus reducing your number of flush outs.

[Demana]

You raised preflop and he called. Now he check/raises.

As to calling, there is $237 ($100+$75+$62) in the pot.
The bet is $75 to you.
237:75 = 3.2:1

You have at most 12 outs (flush plus 3 aces).
47 unseen cards - 12 outs = 35 cards.
35:12 == 2.9:1

Seems like the pot odds are there for you to call since you will be drawing to the nut flush.

[Demana]

[ QUOTE ]
overpair is very possible. 2 pair or A9 is not that likely based off your description of SB.

I don't think you can count a J as an out if you decide to push/fold.


Ace might be an out.


[/ QUOTE ]
Agreed

[ QUOTE ]

that said, I would be more likely to fold here as with so many callers, there might be someobdy else on the flush draw thus reducing your number of flush outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not so sure about this. SB checked, limper makes a small bet in relation to pot size, one other caller besides Hero. All of them fold to the big raise with odds to call for a flush draw.

But... I just realized my mistake in my other post. The odds are there to see the river, but if a club doesn't come on the turn and Villian pushes, is it worth it for Hero to call on the flop?

At that point, there is $310 in the pot ($235+$75)
Hero will be faced with a bet of $125 (his remaining stack)
$235+$125 = $360 : $125 == 2.8:1

Hero has at most 12 outs.
There are 46 unexposed cards - 12 outs = 34 bad cards
34:12 = 2.9:1

So.... is Hero willing to put his entire stack in on a draw and if so, would it be better to push on the flop with a slight chance that SB folds?

[leykis]

The first thought that I had was that the SB has a set. If your read on him is correct I would think he would bet this flop with an overpair. That being said you are in a position to call to drawing to the nuts. If the 5 of clubs falls of course you cant call that an out so you have 8 clean outs with two to come. About 25% to hit. You have to call 75 into a 200 dollar pot.

pokenum -h 9d 9h - ac qc -- 9c 5d 2c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9c 2c 5d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9d 9h 737 74.44 253 25.56 0 0.00 0.744
Ac Qc 253 25.56 737 74.44 0 0.00 0.256

If he has a set you have no folding equity if you push. You are going to get called.

So I lay it down.

[gergery]

Most people don’t limp and then call a raise preflop with a hand that makes 2-pair on this board. It’s possible he has 87, 76, or 43 of clubs but since those are only 3 specific hands, it is more likely he has a set. It’s possible he has KK-TT, or A9 but those are less likely. He could have two big clubs, but that is also less likely. Particularly from a tight player.

Since you are 5:1 against improving on turn to a flush and 3:1 against improving to flush or one pair and you are not getting 3:1 then folding is probably best. Particularly since you are likely to face a bet on the turn.

--Greg

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

I did not put him on top set. I am not sure why, but I felt it was 50/50 between a set (second or third) and an overpair.

I didn't want to call because I knew that he would put me all in on the turn if a club didn't fall -- and that call would be tough (or impossible). To make this worth while I reasoned that I needed some folding equity.

So I pushed.

Now it gets interesting -- and I wouldn't mind comments on my action: SB starts talking and asks if he can turn his cards up. In this room, if it is heads up, you can flip your cards. Once he asked, I said "I'm not looking at them," and I stared straight ahead at the dealer (I was in the 5 seat) or into space. It was actually pretty humerous. Without looking, I felt pretty good about my read because he wouldn't pull the flip the cards with top set. After about two minutes, he called and I saw the best possible hand from my vantage point -- a pair of tens. So ALL my outs were good -- Aces, Jacks and clubs -- and I was actually the favorite: 53/47 (or thereabouts).

Unfortunately none of my outs came [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

I buy-in for another $250 -- and my night gets worse -- I will post that unrelated hand in a seperate thread later.


EDIT: As I try to remember what happened, I recall thinking that at least one of the callers had a 9. The $25 bet and call smelled like one (or both) of them had top pair weak kicker. I guess that is why I didn't put SB on 9s. After the folds by the other two players I probably should have reevaluated...