5/10 NL hand

[The Next WSOP Winner]

My stack: ~$2500

Late position raises $40, CO calls $40, I call $40 on button with K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] No significant reads on either player.

Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

OG raiser bets $100, CO calls, and I raise to $400. OG folds, CO thinks, then raises all-in for ~$550 more.

Thoughts?

[Nero]

the call/raise all-in on the flop is almost always a set here. that being said i call here so the pain of losing 100bb keeps me from calling raises with dominated hands in the future. cheers, nick

[Popinjay]

what range of hands do you put him on based on that LP raise?

[mks]

I'll be honest...I have called in that spot on the button with KQ before. But every time I wanted to kick myself in the ass afterwards. You have no reads; you don't want to play this hand after a raise and a call. I'd rather call with 87o.

As for the river call, devoid of any reads, it's a simple math problem.

He probably has 1 of 3 things: set, KQ, one pair (AA,AK). I'm ruling out KJ and 2 pair, since you said you had no read, and generally players that can have these hands here give off a read pretty quickly. JT is possible too, but seems unlikely. Anyway...

--Against a set you win say 10% on average (more vs 88, less vs QQ,KK).

--Against one pair you win say 80% on average (more vs AK, less vs AA).

--Against KQ you win 50%.

Since there are 3 options we have an infinite number of breakeven probabilities, but a practical set is:

P(set)=70%, P(KQ)=20%, P(1 pair)=10%.

To be honest though you may not see 1 pair here that often. If you rule out AK/AA, then the breakeven probabilities are about:

P(set)=60% P(KQ)=40%

Based just on hand likelihood (set 5 ways, KQ 4 ways) you've got a call, but some knowledge of the player should help you narrow down his range of hands.

All in all, I'd probably call it getting 3-1.

[mks]

Very real possibility of KQ as well.

[random]

It looks like he bought in relatively short (or did he lose down to that?), so that's a sign that he's not the best player. Not good players will push here when they are behind. It's not a strong tell, but strong enough to call 550 more in a pretty large pot.

[creedofhubris]

Fold KQ to the preflop raise, then your decisionmaking gets easier. I note down players who call preflop raises with KQ (and AJ) on my "target" list.

Once you have to make your all-in decision... MP is certainly showing great strength here. His play (call bet, then reraise a raiser all-in, also known as a "superman" move), is a bad sign for you. It sometimes happens with idiots who want to play their flush draws, but you usually have a read on such idiots beforehand, and besides, there is no flush draw here. I think you're screwed, blued, and tattooed, but you probably have to call in case MP's an idiot with AA, AK, K8, JT, or Q8. You're getting 3:1, you're way ahead of such morons, and you could improve to beat QQQ or 888... if the allin reraise were larger, say $1000 to you, I think a fold becomes superior.

If you respect MP's play, then that would be a clear fold as well.