$100+$9 Stars Tourney - overcall with JJ?

[UMTerp]

Last night's Stars tourney - started with 214 players, we're down to 18 players. Already in the money. I don't remember the exact details, but this is close enough. Average stack at this point is about T18,000. There's only one real short stack at my table - UTG+1 has about T4,000. Blinds are 600-1200 with a 100 ante. I'm sitting in decent, though not great position. I'm in about 8th place with T20,000. The real money is in the top three or four as usual.

T2,700 in dead money with the blinds and antes. UTG+1 pushes his last T4,000 in. Folded around to the small blind, who reraises all-in. He has about T14,000.

I have JJ in the big blind. ~T20,000 in the pot, T12,800 for me to call. Overcall here with two players already all-in?? I'll be the shortest stack if I lose the hand, and in the top two or three if I win it.

The table had been very tight the last few orbits, but that was because we were on the bubble for another pay level. We had just gotten down to 18 two or three hands previous, so I thought that play was going to be loosening up again.

Is the decision close?

[ThingDo]

I def. call this all-in here. It really really looks like an isolation play, and I don't know if he's pushing here with AA or KK, QQ is a def. possibility, but I think he'll push there with sooo many hands that you dominate that I think its worth a call.

[Boris]

Wow. very close decision. Sitting here reading your post I would say fold. However, in the heat of battle I'm almost sure I would call.

I say fold for two reasons.

1. With your current stack you can still make it to the final table by playing tight and winning small pots.

2. Even if you call and win the hand, you still have a long ways to go towards finishing in the top 3. Meaning if you are number 3 in chips with 17 players left you are still going to see alot of variance in where you bust out.

If the table was playing exceptionally tough I would lean more towards calling.

[Klak]

i think i would call. you probably have the best hand, though it doesnt play well in multiway pots, you have pretty good odds to call.

[SossMan]

I would quit poker before I folded JJ in that spot.

[soxfan70]

I dont think its close. The call (and loss) leaves with you less than 4x BB. Why risk it on such a marginal hand when it's quite likely that the SB has two overs with the push? It's almost impossible to put the shortstack on a hand, but the SB push tells me that even if I'm ahead now, I'm likely to be WAY behind after the flop. Just my opinion, but I'm kina tight. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Rick Diesel]

I agree with Sossman here. The only possible hand that you are behind here is QQ. There is no way that AA or KK re-raises to isolate, as they would want you in the pot. Coin flips include AK and AQ. Hands that you dominate are 22-TT, AJ, AT, Axs.

The odds of you dominating the opponent are way too great to fold here. interested to hear the results.

Rick D.

[DVC Calif]

Boy, without any read on SB or hand history on the types of plays SB is capable of making, it's a tough call. I agree that it definitely looks like an isolation play; he wants to be HU against the short stack. He could be pushing with anything from 44 to AA. However, if short stack was pushing with Ax and SB was isolating with AK/Q, you have a pretty good shot at winning if the board doesn’t hit either of them.

Alternatively, waiting for a better opportunity, facing a raise and re-raise, is also prudent.

That being said, I’d call and pray to the poker gods that I make my set.

Gambool !!!

[UMTerp]

LOL, SossMan's response made me laugh. I thought it reeked of an isolation play too, and called in about two seconds.

Thought process:

I didn't particularly care what the initial raiser hand, though it certainly would be nice to be ahead of him too. I'm clearly ahead of the probable range of hands he could push with, given that he'd be forced into the blinds in two hands, and he was a long way from the final table.

All I really wanted to do was be ahead of the small blind, and I'd profit from the call regardless of the other player's cards. I figured his probable hands were KK-66 and AK-AT. I dominate 54 of those hands, am tied with 1, slightly ahead with his 32 overcard possibilities, and am way behind 12 times. I thought it was an easy call, and am actually surprised a few of you are advocating folding here. I thought this was a good a chance as any to get a real big stack and make a push for the win.

Turns out that UTG+1 had QT and SB had AJ. Of course an ace flopped, but that's not really the point. I opened all-in from the button two hands later with KQ, ran into AQ, and went out in 17th, though I was very happy with my play throughout the tournament. Best I'd played in the $100 in a while. I felt like I gave myself a real shot to win.

Follow up question for those that wanted me to call:

What is the lowest pocket pair you'd call with here?

My gut tells me to call with 99 and fold 88, and that's probably about right. Agree/Disagree?

[SossMan]

I would call with TT. 99/88 gets a little dicey, because TT/JJ are certainly in his range, and you become coinflips to AT, AJ, KJ, QJ,QT.

The bigger problem with those are that you lose big equity vs. the all in guy, since his range certainly includes many overcards in that spot.