Routine Fold?

[Irieguy]

I don't think so. I'm a huge fan of this concept, and use it every chance I get... but there are several variables that are difficult to quantify here.

At least some of the reason why you fold the SB to the tiny stack BB is because there is a reasonable chance that he'll win the hand in a race. This makes him a bigger stack, and therefore removes quite a bit of your tournament equity, notwithstanding your forthcoming steal opportunities.

But with Aces, far more so than with any other hand, you are extremely unlikely to double him up. Therefore, you lose some of the intrinsic equity-sparing value of the play when you fold.

I don't know if I'm making sense... but if you were somehow able to calculate all the relative equity possibilities for all the different push/fold options for every possible hand in this situation (considering your forthcoming steal opportunities vis a vis your chances of losing your stack and finishing 4th yourself)... I'm pretty sure that you'd find that you are better off folding almost every hand. But not every hand. Aces would be one that you should not fold.

I'm pretty sure I'm correct, and I have no way on earth to prove it. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Maybe somebody can expand on this.

Irieguy

[rachelwxm]

Jason,
You are my favorate poster here, make me think a lot of things that I never thought before. But this is not a particular good situation because:

AA almost wins you chips, folding AK here is my default play. By folding AA, you lost 600 chips and you have to make those back later on before bubble bust, right? And that means you need to steal twice successfully sb and bb. There is no ganrantee, small stack will survive another orbit and the fact he is right AFTER you make things very messy. I guess the best you can hope for is steal 1000 chips. Why not announce AA and hope for a fold. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I dont have much experience as you are, so I would take the sure 600 chips here. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
Most sites log big preflop folds, paradise starts as low as AQo to raise flags.


[/ QUOTE ]

I hope not, i fold this preflop over 10% of the time and i play in loose passive sngs primarily, I think with tight aggresive or loose aggressive players I would be folding a whole lot more often. Same goes for JJ i have folded this plenty of times preflop, I chellenge anyone to show it wasn't the right thing at the time, this game is a whole lots more complex than some people give it credit for.

Regards Mack

[The once and future king]

The fold might be the correct action, however it is far from routine.

[Avgard]

Bubble play is great.

Someone said it earlier, and I agree, it depends how the medium stacks are behaving. If they seem willing to get blinded out until the money, you MUST fold. Otherwise, raise and get rid of the short stack.

Your post reminded me of a similar experience I had recently. Four left in a SNG. I was large stack and the short stack was a disconnected player (on Doyle's Room it states disconnected right under the player's name). The other players were waiting for him to lose. When he was in the big blind without enough to cover it, I made a significant raise from the button with 63o. The disconnected player won with 10 high. The two other players blinded into 4th and 3rd. Can you believe that, the disconnect finished second and cashed.

I repeat, bubble play is great.

[silversurfer]

I ask this because I want to become a better player, and examining the game at a higher level with people such as yourself can only lead me to that goal. But I cannot understand this for the life of me.

By knocking out the short stack(I like my odds with AA vs any random hand), you automatically put yourself in the money (certainly a plus EV move).
Isn't one of the basic rules of poker "eliminate the short stack"? He doubles up twice and he's back in the game.

Add to that the fact that you have 3x their stack. Are you playing a SnG with Reese and Ivey(not trying to be abrasive)? Do you really feel that potentially sacrificing a shot at the money and subtracting $500 from your stack is worth the psychological edge you would have over the remaining two players?

By all indications, you're 10x the SnG player I am. But this isn't the final two tables at the WSOP. I like my odds with aces here.

[A J Carisse]

This is pretty interesting stuff.

Keep in mind that the BB may fold here anyway. This will leave him another lap, which he's gotta make a stand. I'd be looking to have him isolate against one or both of the other 2. If he doubles up that's good.

I can see the rationale of having the BB in the game, but if I'm running over the other 2 players anyway, and I have that kind of lead, I'm not going to worry about it if I end up taking out the BB. I'm not going to fold the aces and yup I'm going to push them here.

The other 2 stacks are still competing and while they're going to defend more now, you've still got the muscle.

Another consideration is personal style. I wouldn't mind it at all if I take out the BB, the other two go all in against each other, and then I take on the winner heads up. What I look to do in these cases is avoid doubling up one of them needlessly. So I'm probably playing a little more carefully here than Jason. However, for him, it might be the right move to try to keep things as they are and do more 4 way action.

A.J.

[texasrattlers]

This is a routine raise. BB is likely to call w/ anything at this point, meaning that by folding you are likely giving up 600 in chips (your 100 SB plus shorty's remaining 500). How certain are you to get this 600 back from bullying, particularly considering you have to go through shorty (who is likely to call w/ anything decent) to get to the medium stacks, and the risk of a medium stack waking up with a monster. I just take shorty's last 500 and start bullying a little more selectively to take advantage of the medium stacks' probably playing for 2nd given your chip advantage.

[hhboy77]

i'm suprised that no one has mentioned the fact that jstrass is not in a good position to steal. even though he has the big stack on the bubble, he has the shortest stack on the table to his direct left. this will present difficulties in stealing from the medium stacks because the short stack will always shield the other players. while the other 2 players might fold a good hand, a person with 700 chips won't even fold something decent.

the fold would be more reasonable, if jstrass was the bb and the short stack in the sb.