Counting outs with marginal hands

[TheSeeker03]

How do you figure if you should stay in a marginal hand?

I know this is a broad topic, but it is a common situation.

Let's face it: Most often, the flop misses you or gives you a marginal hand. A gutshot, a backdoor flush, bottom pair and a backdoor flush, etc.

How do you decide if you should go on?

Let's say you have KhTh on the button and four people see the flop for one bet. Flop comes Qh 9s 3d, there are 5 small bets. Middle position bets, next hand calls. It's 7 small bets in the pot and your turn. what do you do?

you have a backdoor flush, an overcard, and a gutshot. Gutshot is 4 outs, backdoor flush is 2 outs, overcard is 1.5 outs, because while there are 3 cards out there, it's not very likely to win. So total of ~7 outs. For 7 outs, chances of next card having your out are ~15%, or 1/7. So you should be getting 6 to 1. The pot is giving you 7 to 1, so I call in this situation. But not with a lot of confidence.

Any comments? Anyone disagree with my outs/odds reasoning?

[Ed Miller]

But not with a lot of confidence.

This is the only part I disagree with. You have an easy call in this example... due to implied odds. I outline a system of counting outs very similar to this in my book.

[sthief09]

your analysis is good (though per SSH, a backdoor flush is worth 1.5 outs), but there are 2 things you didn't consider:
- what are the chances that someone behind you will raise? you can make a lot of loose calls when you are closing the action on a round, since having to call 2 bets is often catastrophic to your drawing odds
- what are your implied odds? clearly, most of the time when you turn a straight and bet, all of your opponents will not just check and fold. when you're only calling 1 SB on the flop, you can make some loosish calls, especially if you're drawing to the nuts because you can expect to collect a good amount of BB's on later streets. if you expect to win 3 BB on later streets if you make a straight, then that's 6 SB's right there.

[maynard]

Interesting situation, you definitely have the outs/odds to continue, but why not raise here? I think I always raise this from the button unless my opponents are all very aggressive... so in other words I probably always raise this. You have the chance to protect overcard outs against a typical fishy holding like K3 by facing UTG with two bets. The initial bettor could easily be betting middle pair, caller calling with who-knows, so spiking a T might be good occasionally against a small field, buying you partial outs you probably didn't even know you had. Assuming it doesn't get 3-bet, you also have a perfect scenario for a free-card play. Again, assuming mostly passive opponents.

Am I wrong in raising here? How about a different scenario: 5 or 6 passive players limp, UTG bets and everybody calls to you... no chance for protecting anything, the free card play is slightly less attractive because of 1.5 outs being tied up in your 2-card flush draw, but you still have gutshot draw/overcard in a decent-sized pot. I still raise purely for the free card. Thoughts?

[Rubeskies]

The more opponents you have, the less likely the free card play will work.

[TheSeeker03]

Hi Ed.

Thanks for reply. Actually I already own your book and was very impressed with it.

I guess I should re-read some parts of it.

My reasoning for 15% is that there are 47 cards unknown, almost 50. If 50, there is a 2% that next card is your out. So 7 outs is 14%, plus I added a 1% because 47 is slightly less than 50.

So by my calculation it's barely callable.

But you say this is an EASY call. Is it because many of the outs are to draws, that I would drop if I didn't hit them, but make money on them if I did hit them?

What in this situation would be a marginal call: If someone raised on the flop? If KT was unsuited and i did not have backdoor flush?

[jordanx]

[ QUOTE ]
But you say this is an EASY call. Is it because many of the outs are to draws, that I would drop if I didn't hit them, but make money on them if I did hit them?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's an easy call because of implied odds. You are on the flop and have two rounds of betting after this one. If you spike a J on the turn, since this pot is multiway and big, you will be able to raise and make extra bets (or go for overcalls), same w/ river.

If you don't spike a jack and a heart doesn't fall on the turn, you can fold the turn without paying more money.

So when you make this flop call, it is implied that you will also profit at least 4 big bets on the turn and river if you improve.

[ QUOTE ]
What in this situation would be a marginal call: If someone raised on the flop? If KT was unsuited and i did not have backdoor flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

If someone raised before you this would be a marginal call. If you didn't have the backdoor flush, you might consider how many players you think would call behind before you called.

[Eratosthenes]

Hi Seeker--

In the original question you have a better than 6:1 chance of winning a bet that is paying 7:1 (more with implied odds). Over the long haul you bet 6 to win 7--that's a 17% edge without considering the implied odds. Isn't that what playing poker is all about? Sthief has a good point about a possible check-raiser yet to act, but I think this is an easy call. Only 3% of the hands in my hand history database have a check-raise on the flop. Therefore, I would think that you need a darn good reason to fold this for fear of a check-raise. (I do make an effort to find tables with loose, passive players, so that 3% might be low for someone else's play.)

If your hand was unsuited, then you would have something like 5.5 outs or a 7.5:1 chance of winning the pot offering you 7:1. I'll make this call because of the implied odds. A jack on the turn will not be a big scare card to most small stakes players, so if you do get a jack on the turn, you are likely to get paid very nicely.

Ed Miller has a brief discussion of implied odds in poker concepts section SSH.

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say you have KhTh on the button and four people see the flop for one bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know this isn't the point of your post but other people seem to have answered that fairly well.

If I had KTh on the button, I don't know why four people would be seeing the flop for one bet. I suppose if they were tight and passive before the flop and very loose and reluctant to fold after the flop, but that's rare.