Reraised with QQ: What now?

[Pensive Gerbil]

In a ring game with $5-$10 blinds, you have $500 in your stack and QQ in your hand. You open for $30 in early position and MP makes it $100 to go. MP is a reasonable player who you believe would only reraise this amount with AK, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, and possibly TT (he respects you). LP is a bad/loose player who calls $100 from the button, and the remaining players fold. Both of your opponents started the hand with about as much money as you. You believe LP has an inferior hand which he is likely to muck if you move all-in, and you believe MP is likely to call. Do you move all-in? Or is it better to just call, planning to move-in if the flop does not have an ace or king? If you decide to just call, will you check-fold if the flop contains an ace or king? Would anyone fold before the flop?

-PG

[Popinjay]

[ QUOTE ]
only reraise this amount with AK, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, and possibly TT (he respects you)

[/ QUOTE ]

okay so lets eliminate TT.
AK: 16
AA: 6
KK: 6
QQ: 1
JJ: 6

12 combinations beat you (AA/KK), 17 combinations tie or nearly tie you (QQ/AK), and you are ahead of 6 combinations (JJ). So, should you go all-in? No. Lets take out QQ/AK since they tie you preflop for considering this. Now we just have AA/KK vs JJ, you cannot go all-in as it is a losing play here. That being said you cannot fold preflop. The odds that he has JJ or AK, implied odds set possibilities, and the third player sweetening the pot, you must call here. If you flop a set, then great, extract the maximum however you need to. If the flop has an A or K in it and no Q this is an auto check fold. If the flop does not have an A/K/Q in it, then I would check-raise all-in on the flop.

[Kips Bay Kid]

PF: Just call, going all in will only get you called by a hand that has you beat.
Post-Flop: you are making a raise from EP and are getting reraised, I guess you have to trust the read you have on MP, but to reraise a raiser from EP I would tend to think he has a stronger hand >= QQ. Also he is risking 20% of his stack, I find it unlikely to make such a move with AK. I play this flop cautiously, I would not feel as comfortable C-R all-in.

[Pensive Gerbil]

In estimating the EV of moving all-in preflop, it is important to consider the value of the dead money when LP folds; the edge that QQ has over AK may also be significant. [Furthermore, since I thought MP might reraise with TT, I would include 2 or 3 combos for this hand in the analysis.] I do not know whether these factors are enough to make moving all-in positive EV.

Due to the rather shallow money, I think the primary benefit of calling (versus moving all-in preflop) would be to save money when overcards flop, as opposed to the implied odds of flopping a set.

I do not understand your postflop check-raise recommendation. If MP has AK and misses the flop, he might check. If either opponent bets, the size of their bet is likely to commit them to the pot.

-PG

[Pensive Gerbil]

I am confident in my read of MP's hand range.

If you thought MP had QQ-AA, why would you call?

-PG

[Kips Bay Kid]

You are right the implied odds are not even big enough for set value, since you only have $500 in front of you, I'll assume MP has at least that (you did not mention stack sizes).

You need 12:1 and with all of his money in the pot you are only getting 9:1.

So like I said, you need to trust your reads.

[Popinjay]

12:1?

[Kips Bay Kid]

Odds of hitting a set on the turn or river, this was under the pretense that he had to beat AA or KK, he had asked me why call if you think he has AA-QQ.

[Popinjay]

It is situational but most times an opponent will fire (in my experience) even if they missed. Also, if the third opponent shows some signs on a coordinated flop (such as raising the flop bettor/preflop raiser) then you can safely fold. Check-raising all-in on the flop seems to make the most and lose the least imo.

Also if my opponent bet AK or one of them some other top pair, I dont care if he is pot committed because I would still be the favorite to win by the river.

[Popinjay]

Why just turn and river?