tournament play

[DrPhysic]

In any given tournament, there is a large luck factor. but:

If you write down the names of the top players in the world (top 50 say), you find that with great regularity 4 of the 6 final table players at almost any WPT, WSOP, etc tournament are from that list. Therefore, I conclude that skill outweighs luck over a longer term by a considerable margin.

Doc

[fletch]

your right there

[fletch]

i think perhaps the more money at stake the more skill is maybe involved but sadly i dont have the cash nor the b..ls
to get involved in any high stakes

[DrPhysic]

So you're what? The Lone Ranger?

Lack of native ability, skill, experience, education, bankroll, b*lls...

Only a few minor things keeping most of us off the TV.

Doc

[MilkFish]

i've only played in a few tournaments (mostly live play) but overall i've finished in the money most of the time. although i've noticed i'm in the low end of the "in the money" finishes in big tournaments (70-500) but i come in 1st or 2nd in 2-table tourneys.
yes, it takes a lot of luck because i consider myself a newbie and a mediocre player. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

In the few tourneys I won or in the money, everytime I suckout or drawout against an opponent, I type: "it takes skill, spelled L U C K".

[Bobby Cannoli]

How 'bout some data points, see if we can make some empirical conclusions? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I have played 139 MTTs, 40 freerolls, the other 99 ranging from $1 to $33 (50 $1s, 2 $33s, 1 $25, the rest in the $2 to $8 range, mostly $2 and $3).

For the pay tournies, I have 18 cashes, and 23 top 10% finishes (most used to pay less than top 10%, being LARGE field micro-buyin). Of the 18 cashes, 1 final table, 1 second table, 1 third table, 1 fourth table, with the rest scattered along the rest of the curve.

Points of note:
1 - all but 3 of the pay tournies had >1000 starters, probably averaging about 1500.

2 - Never made the cash, or top 10%, in my first 19 pay tournies. So I'm 18 for 80 making the money (about 23%) if you discount those.

3 - I made the cash in 3 of my first 10 tournies, which were all freerolls. Then the string of 19 no-cash pay tournies, and I've only made top 10% in one of the last 30 freerolls since then!

4 - I started playing in January, and play about 100-150 hands per day, on avg, spread between ring, SnG and MTT. Lately, I've been playing more MTTs.

So for a relatively new player, playing huge field micro-buyins (primarily), I've made the cash 18% of the time, whereas 8-9% would be statistically expected. So I'm going to assume, for me, and for this level of tourney, it's 50% skill and 50% luck. Since 100% luck would predict about 8 or 9 money finishes, and I'm at twice that.

It would be interesting to see what stats others have for higher buyin tourneys.

Bobby

[Steve Chase]

It depends on the size of the tourney and where do you want to finish in the money.

For tourneys with 1000 or more players,
if you goal is just to get into the money, you can play with a style that will get you in the money with 10% above the average luck.

For tourneys with 1000 or more players,
if you goal is to get into the final table you need to play with a different style that will get you in the final table with 90% above average luck.

In either case, you need good skills.

[uaw420rook]

I dont know about percentages, but short term results rely on luck and long term results rely on skill. I was a tilt monster until I really took grasp of it. I finished in the money in the last two Party Poker Millions. It was a combination of skill and Luck that I made the money. It may be that the particular strategy I used, worked well with the Luck I recieved in those two tourneys. I see players on Party Poker, Like Caufield and Gambohaulic doing very well in the large tourneys. I think the answer to this posted question, is really impossible to answer. Each individual players skill level, would raise or diminish the need for luck to be successful.

[morgan180]

"The harder I work, the luckier I get." -- Gary Player

I think this sums up an MTT perfectly. You need skill AND luck to win a MTT. But you have to be good enough to know where your edges are and when and how to push them to be successful.

So you need to be very skillful at being "lucky." It's the perfect embodiement of "Getting the Best of It." You need to know when you're getting the most of the best of it, and if you are good enough to know that then you will find yourself being more "lucky."