"STOP BLUFFING STUPID!" (postflop aggression question)

[Greg J]

Another one:
Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Greg is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">Greg raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: (5 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Greg raises</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Greg checks.

River: (4.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Greg bets</font>, SB calls.

Final Pot: 6.50 BB

Results in black below:
Greg has Ad Qd (one pair, aces).
SB has 9c Kc (one pair, nines).
Outcome: Greg wins 6.50 BB. </font>

[radek2166]

I think I go about it a bit differant. If I am betting overs with position.

It seems to me until they hit the big strrets they stick around. If I am wondering about it on the river I just check. I have seen to many bottom pair take my big over cards.

Also they think they are tricky by check raiseing on the river. So if I am betting weak cards on sd I just check on the end unimproved. I am sure it has cost me some BB. I am also sure it has saved me a few.

If I got a legit hand I bet it the whole way. I dont know how to put the criteria on it. Its Just what I do.

[droolie]

Here is a good example of a standard play of mine, though I usually would bet the river against one player in this situation. Tired of getting shown bottom pair and losing at showdown in this example I decided to check behind on the river figuring with such a ragged board he couldn't be drawing. When the BB won at showdown with his A3o he wrote, "Huh?" in the chat box... My sentiments exactly!


Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP3 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, MP3 folds.

River: (7.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 7.75 BB

[btspider]

check that turn droolie.. the board is not coordinated.. they likely called with a piece of the flop. you can't even beat Ace high.. take your free card against 2 opponents.

the flop bet is goot.. but i play my hands better:

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls, <font color="666666">5 folds</font>, CO (poster) checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, CO calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, CO checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, CO folds.

Final Pot: 4.75 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 4.25 BB, won by Hero.</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: 0.50 BB, returned to Hero.</font>

[Greg J]

oops!

On this example the reason to bet on the flop was to value bet my flush draw. Still worked out though. (I should have played more attn to suit.)

[skunkworks]

[ QUOTE ]
check that turn droolie.. the board is not coordinated.. they likely called with a piece of the flop. you can't even beat Ace high.. take your free card against 2 opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just a note, I see players calling a bet with any two cards on an uncoordinated board like J72r. Against one flop caller, I'll fire another shot on the turn. Against two, I'd take the free card.

With AQo I'd be more inclined to bet the turn and check the river through since my hand has more showdown value.

[droolie]

Thanks to everybody who gave me encouragement. I had a killer night tonight and made back the entire 120BB I lost over the weekend! The poker gods have granted me a reprieve! LOL!

Scaling back my postflop bluffing was critical to my success. I realize now that bullying pots with just overcards is not necessary (or good strategy) in order to be successful. I think I was trying too hard to win every pot I raised and was taking aggressive play too far. I was seeing bluff opportunites everywhere when I should have been saving bets for another hand. That was a huge leak in my game that with your help I think I have fixed for good. The trick to postflop aggression seems to be to pick your spots. I think being a little weak on loose tables is a good idea. The lesson I've learned in examining this issue is that you will have to show the best hand a large percentage of the time so only bet if you think you might be able to show down the best hand if your draw comes in. TPTK often is not that good a hand.

[Goon2]

[ QUOTE ]
I read all of the posts to your note so far and I didn't see where anyone pointed to page 221 of SSH where the statement is made that, generally, an overcard is worth 1.5 outs. Reading further, depending on the flop, they could be worth slightly more or less. Even if you give each of them 2 outs (VERY generously), that's still no better than a gutshot draw after the flop, and I would want a pot with at least 11 bets.

One poster indicated that he would want at least 7:1 pot odds. I can understand that from the standpoint of 6 outs (pairing either of the overcards). However, SSH only attributes about 1.5 outs to each I would guess, because you no way certain of a nut hand.

I know this doesn't address the bluff angle at all, but purely from a pot odds standpoint, overcards need a large pot to warrant a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I made the statement about needing at least 7:1 to continue with overcards. I got this figure from the concept in SSH you suggest I overlooked.

If you have two "clean" overcards, they are worth 3 outs, making you a 14.3:1 underdog on the next card. But on the flop, you have 2 chances to hit, meaning you are slightly worse than a 7:1 underdog to hit by the river.

Certainly other things factor into your decision. I am nevertheless very reluctant to continue without 7:1 odds on the flop.