Probability Question

[nickey009]

I posted this question to the probability board and really I'd just like some answers. I know it's kind of out of place here but I'd like some thoughts.

My friend and I have been having a discussion concerning odds and probibility. It's a strange little discussion and I'll try to artiulate it as best as I can. Here we go....

I read a post on here about a guy playing .01/.02 NL hold 'em. The guy made a raise of .16 and the guy after him raised him all in for all his chips. 2 dollars. It was a full table and the other 8 guys folded and he agonized and called with 1010.

The hand ended up being a heads up situation where the hero had to decide if his 1010 was the best hand. Now, let's change the scenario and make it a heads up match where you have 1010 and raise and the guy moves all in on you.

Are the odds the same of you having the best hand at the time in the 2 handed situation the same as the 10 handed?

[phil_ivey_fan]

I think mathematically the odds are the same...however, with ring games, player starting/raising/moving-all-in hands are much stricter than those of a heads up match.

W/ TT, you "might" call in a full ring game...heads up, though, its a "definite" call (unless you have a super-dupper-strong read on the opponent).

[jacksfull]

I think not. In a heads up game, a player is likely to reraise all-in with a much smaller hand than he is in a full ring game. Depending on how aggressive he is, he might re-raise with any pair or any Ace, or even a hand like K-Q suited. In a ten-handed game, you are looking at Aces, Kings, Queens, or a bluff.

I realize that from a probability standpoint, he would be equally likely to have a hand like Aces no matter what size game he is in. But his actions suggest a bigger hand in a full game than heads up.

[amoeba]

Every poker question can be broken down to two parts. The math part with the equations and variables and the analysis part of what you put in to these variables.

This question is more a what you put in to these variables question so less of a math question and in my opinion not really probability driven.

I agree with the posters that said the opponent definitely moved in with a narrower range of hands in the 10 way scenario rather than the HU scenario.

I think that the two situations are a bit closer though had HERO been UTG, raised, everybody folded to the villain in BB, who goes all in rather than HERO raise, villain to the immediate left of hero goes all in, everybody folds to all in.

Even in my hypothetical scenario, villain still has a narrower range of hands than the HU scenario because he would have to realize that he is all in reraising somebody who raised UTG in to a field of 10 players.

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
I realize that from a probability standpoint, he would be equally likely to have a hand like Aces no matter what size game he is in.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not true. the probability of one player having AA in a 10 handed game is much higher than the probability of one player in a 2 handed game having AA.

of course any player who has AA is going to raise. but since there are other hands a player might raise with(ESPECIALLY in the 2 handed game), the raise does not increase the chances of AA in each game (respectively) infinitely, to the point at which they would become equal. (100%)

another way to look at this is...a player who represents AA in a 10 handed game is telling you that 10% of the players have AA. a player who represents AA in a 2 handed game is telling you that 50% of the players have AA. taking into account our knowledge that players do not always tell the truth, which one is more likely to be lying?

[DavidC]

Just want to point out that I hate people saying 1010 instead of TT...

Is that like an omaha hand where there's a zero value, or what?

Are you using binary to describe the tenth card?

What about A10? Would you be playing pineapple?

What about if you had JTs? Would you write jack10sooted?

(TT rocks)

............................

I just had to rant a little here.

It's out of my system now though... I'll continue to read the valuable posts on the board, even if they use the term 1010 to describe only two cards.

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Take care guys, and sorry. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]