KK multi way hand

[woostah]

50+5 multi, middle stages, blinds 100 200, still along way from the money.
I get dealt KsKc UTG, I raise to 600 of my 3800 chips (about average stack.
UTG+1 calls, MP1 and MP2 call, Button calls (MP2 has over 8000 chips, the other players have stacks similar to mine). (2700tc)

The table had actually playing pretty tight recently, kind of surprising to see so many callers.

Flop comes 7d8d9c. In a cash game, I would be very careful around this flop. The problem with tournaments is I have 3200 left and there is 2700 in the pot, so I eiher need to push now or check fold (I consider checkraising pretty terrible here). With so many callers I need to be worried about a set of 7s, 8s, 9s, and the late position guys could have J10, 78, or such. However, my hand could very well be good, If I push I could get called by 10 10- QQ, 10 9, something like KQd or AJd.

With so much in the pot that I would almost double up if I can take it down on the flop, and almost triple up if I get called by a hand worse than mine and hold up (or get called by a hand better and draw out), Is pushing all in on the flop definitely the right move here?

[grandgnu]

It's the middle stage so you're still far off from the money. Your hand is strong but there are lots of possibilities out there.

I might have bet 800-1000 pre-flop, because right now you've got WAY too many players in the hand. I think I'd be more concerned about someone sticking around with J/10 suited than having the smaller pocket pairs, but anything is possible.

I'd probably bet half the pot and leave yourself the option of running away if you get re-raised.

[woostah]

In hindsight, the 600 raise turned the hand into a disaster, but the table had been playing so tight that i didnt think id get that much action. I really dont like betting half the pot and then folding to a reraise because I think it not only commits almost half of my remaining chips, it just screams weakness and invites people to play back at me not only with hands that beat me, but with worse over pairs and semi bluffs, which will happen way more than 1 in 4 times. I think I need to push or check and fold here.

[Sam T.]

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I'd probably bet half the pot and leave yourself the option of running away if you get re-raised.

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Yuk - he can't bet half his stack and fold to a raise.

Also, what do you do on the turn if you are called rather than raised?



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I consider checkraising pretty terrible here.

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What is the problem with this move? I can think of a few reasons, but wonder if there are others:
-If someone in LP bets and you raise, MP may have odds to chase his draws.
-If someone goes all in, the CR is (obviously) impossible.

On the other hand, it might give you the chance to see what kind of action is behind you. If the peanut gallery goes nuts (so to speak), you can feel pretty confident about folding. Of course you can't give free cards here, so that's a potential problem...

Ugh. This is why checkers is a good game.

[grandgnu]

He's betting half the pot to get the player(s) holding an Ace to go away. Instead they catch it on the turn and now he's in trouble.

I still think he can bet half the pot to probably get a lot of folders. Look at it this way:

OPTION 1: CHECK

Displays weakness and opens it up to the other 3-4 players in the hand to make a steal and he may have the better hand. Gives him a cheap way of folding though

OPTION 2: BET HALF THE POT

Should push out the weaker hands and draws. If someone has a made hand with this flop (two pair, a set, a straight, a real strong flush draw) then they're going to come back over the top of him (or just smooth call) and he can still get out of this hand with some chips. And he has the possibility of winning the entire thing with his bet right there.

OPTION 3: PUSH ALL-IN: While this should get the drawing hands to fold, you won't get the made hands to fold. You could be betting right into a made straight (and flush draw on top of it!). Why risk all of your chips when if players have made hands they're going to call you and take you down? There are too many players post-flop for you to make this move IMHO. Better move is to make a large bet and leave yourself an out.

[nightlyraver]

Definately see your point about pushing or folding being the only 2 options. However, I think that we need to know how likely it is that someone is holding a set. In tourneys, I'm not too fearfull of sets right off the bat when mid. cards flop. First, UTG+1 probably does not have a set. If the table is tight, I just really can't see a middle pair cold-calling a raise from EP. Also, I only think that the button had odds to call and draw to a set. If someone has JTs, then it just sucks for you but rest easy knowing that flopping a straight is not too common. That said, I put most of the other players on hands like AK,AQ,QQ,JJ,AA,KQ or something like that. If you are still a long way from the money, I would push here since it is more than likely that the other players are either on draws, have overcards, or a worse pocket pair. You really need to double up since losing this hand would give you only a couple orbits before you start getting short stacked. If you do decide to check, push the turn if all check and a blank hits.

You know, now that I think more about it, I feel that it would be EXTREMELY weak to check-fold KK in this spot. EXTREMELY. Push that $hit...

[nsj]

Just for context:

Hero: T3200
UTG+1: ~2800
MP1: ~T2800
MP2: ~T8500
Button: ~T3000.

Just a ballpark estimation on stacks.

There is T3300 in the pot going to the flop (5 x T600, plus the blinds).

Given what is in the pot now, and the stacks of those still involved, a T1500 bet (half of Hero's stack) is not going to chase good draws (TdAd, JdQd, 9To) away. And the odds are overwhelming that an underbet will be met with a push by the good draws, or a variety of hands already ahead of KK.

This is definitely push or check/fold territory. Out of position and without the Kd, and with that many callers, I probably fold and berate myself for being such a wimp... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img], but there are just too many hands that are ahead or a favourite.

[srw5n]

I think Sam has the best grasp of your situation here.

Condsiderations:
What are the likely holdings of your opponents?

Since you have KK and there is multiway action you can pretty much bounce AA. Only UTG+1 could have AA, and early it is unlikely he'd trap from UTG+1 (IMO).

The fact that you do not have Kd is significant in my opinion, because this add outs to your opponents and decreases your outs to any hand that dominates you.

Seeing that many calls behind you indicates possible holdings of Big Aces (including suits), medium suited connectors including the horrific J-10, and medium pairs.

I think once you consider the possible variety of hands behind you, anyone who gives you action is AT WORST 50/50 with you (Ax d) and most likely has you drawing thin (set or J-10 or even 5-6s).

Any bet invites a draw to come over the top. What do you do now? Are you up against a draw, a set, two pair, a made straight? Therefore I think you only have two real options push or check.

Pushing in is horrible in my opinion. You risk your whole tournament with no idea of what you're up against. You are not going to push off superior hands, you are not going to push off Axd draws, you are not going to push off a set, you are not going to push off J-10.

I think this is a clear check.

If it's checked around you can reevaluate, if you want to check raise a suspect bet you can make that decision, but my hunch is you're beat. When you're beat it doesn't matter how it happened. You are not going to get any superior hands to lay down here. With 4 players still to act I check, and if there's significant interest in the pot I save my chips and get them in at a better time.

KK is not the atom bomb, no need to ram ahead with it like it is. Look for additional action next time you have a big hand, look to check raise, but look for a better spot.

I can imagine very few situations where you hold the best hand (44,55, Big A, Big A). More likely you would get called in two spots with your all in here to a set and a draw...

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
I think Sam has the best grasp of your situation here.

Condsiderations:
What are the likely holdings of your opponents?

Since you have KK and there is multiway action you can pretty much bounce AA. Only UTG+1 could have AA, and early it is unlikely he'd trap from UTG+1 (IMO).

The fact that you do not have Kd is significant in my opinion, because this add outs to your opponents and decreases your outs to any hand that dominates you.

Seeing that many calls behind you indicates possible holdings of Big Aces (including suits), medium suited connectors including the horrific J-10, and medium pairs.

I think once you consider the possible variety of hands behind you, anyone who gives you action is AT WORST 50/50 with you (Ax d) and most likely has you drawing thin (set or J-10 or even 5-6s).

Any bet invites a draw to come over the top. What do you do now? Are you up against a draw, a set, two pair, a made straight? Therefore I think you only have two real options push or check.

Pushing in is horrible in my opinion. You risk your whole tournament with no idea of what you're up against. You are not going to push off superior hands, you are not going to push off Axd draws, you are not going to push off a set, you are not going to push off J-10.

I think this is a clear check.

If it's checked around you can reevaluate, if you want to check raise a suspect bet you can make that decision, but my hunch is you're beat. When you're beat it doesn't matter how it happened. You are not going to get any superior hands to lay down here. With 4 players still to act I check, and if there's significant interest in the pot I save my chips and get them in at a better time.

KK is not the atom bomb, no need to ram ahead with it like it is. Look for additional action next time you have a big hand, look to check raise, but look for a better spot.

I can imagine very few situations where you hold the best hand (44,55, Big A, Big A). More likely you would get called in two spots with your all in here to a set and a draw...

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Great points. But I think given the size of the pot it's worth taking a stab with a half-pot bet. He might pick it all up uncontested, and if he faces a re-raise he can get out still intact with enough chips to make something happen at a later point.

I agree that a push all-in is terrible here and while no one else thinks so, I still believe a half-pot bet is worth a shot. But other than that, a check/fold is best.

[gergery]

I like push best. Check is not terrible. Betting less than a push or checkraising is awful tho.

If you work out the math, then its actually close, depending on what %’s you want to use for likelihood of opponents hands. The key numbers here are: 1) how often do they have you crushed with a made straight/set, and 2) how often will they all fold?
If you plug in 20% for crushed and 30% for fold with the remaining being roughly even with you, then your EV is positive.

If 1 person calls you, then you’re getting 2:1 on your money. And even vs. two pair you’re still only a 3:1 dog. Even if you’re called by Axs, you are still a slight favorite, so your favorite scenario is that he folds, second favorite is that he calls, and last choice for you is that you fold. Net, the pot is so big that even if you’re beat by a hand as good as 2 pair you still are in ok shape EV wise.

However, if you push, there are many many hands that would be getting 2:1 on their money but have better odds than that to win. Those are the hands you want to fold, and why checkraising is terrible. And why a small bet is worse.

Checking does have some value tho, as if a couple people push in you can easily fold, if no one bets you can push knowing all the draws are in bad shape, and if 1 person pushes you probably need to call getting 2:1.

--Greg