have faith

joseki · #1 11-10-2004, 02:49 AM

While this is a rather bad beat, I'm genuinely interested in how others would play the hand--the flop and river in particular.

I didn't have a read on the CO at the time, but MP2 had shown some signs of a reasonable player.
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 raises, MP3 folds, CO 3-bets, Hero caps, SB folds, BB folds, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (13.33 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP2 checks, CO bets, Hero raises, MP2 folds, CO 3-bets, Hero calls.

Should I wait for the turn to raise?

Turn: (9.66 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO bets, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, Hero caps, CO calls.

River: (17.66 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO bets, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, Hero caps, CO calls.

With all the aggression throughout it was hard to put him on a hand that beat me. That said, should I have slowed down at all with the third heart?

Final Pot: 25.66 BB

Results in white below: 
CO has 8h 4h (flush, king high).
Hero has Kd Kc (three of a kind, kings).
Outcome: CO wins 25.66 BB.

Rubeskies · #2 11-10-2004, 03:37 AM

I think you played it fine, it sure looks like AA or QQ that you are up against.

CO 3-bet preflop with 84s then 3 bet the flop with a backdoor flush draw. Put him on your buddy list and try to get to his tables whenever possible in a seat where you can isolate him.

KingSix · #3 11-10-2004, 04:17 AM

Why question if you should wait for the turn to raise?

You had the 100% nuts on the flop and turn. I'm shocked you didn't put the cap in on the flop. You've got to attempt to protect your pot when it gets big. Make people like this pay the absolute maximum to outdraw you.

Other than that, you played it fine. Don't live in fear of miracle runner runners. This player was a total overaggressive LAG for the entire hand and that is why, IMO, the river cap is fine.

King

joseki · #4 11-10-2004, 12:15 PM

Well, I guess I was hoping that by not capping the flop I may get extra bets in on later streets. If I had capped the flop I figured he'd go into call-down mode. But that waiting for a turn blank would keep him to betting into me and increase my pot equity against a club flush-draw. Does this sound reasonable, or am just being silly?

My 3-bet pushed MP2 off of a hand that was likely way behind. Becuase of the pot size he may have called down w/ JJ or AQ or some other hopeless hand. He may have felt pot committed (or even reraised the CO LAG) if I'd have just cold-called the first flop raise. Keeping him around obviously decreases the probablility of me winning the pot, but it will likely lead to a bigger pot the majority of the time that I do win.

So, I'm wondering 1) if there is anything to the turn-blank/pot-equity argument in this case, and 2) if I lost any EV by pushing MP2 out.

Evan · #5 11-10-2004, 12:23 PM

Dude, just be glad that there was a 4 bet cap

Festus22 · #6 11-10-2004, 12:39 PM

You were a 97% favorite over his hand with this flop. Considering you had the absolute nuts until the river, I think you played it fine.

It's funny, as I was reading this post, I was thinking "I bet the CO has 8h-4h so he should just call the river bet".

NOT!!!!!!!!!!!

KingSix · #7 11-11-2004, 04:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I guess I was hoping that by not capping the flop I may get extra bets in on later streets. If I had capped the flop I figured he'd go into call-down mode. But that waiting for a turn blank would keep him to betting into me and increase my pot equity against a club flush-draw. Does this sound reasonable, or am just being silly?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its close, but if someone is going to play their club flush draw like this, I'm going to make them put as much as possible into the pot when they are willing to do so. In addition, if they are willing to 3 bet their draw on the flop, they are probably going to bet into you anyways on the turn. I think from a clear equity standpoint, I jam with it. I think from a strategic standpoint, there could be a different way to play it.

That being said, now that we know the hand he had, that particular analysis is moot. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
My 3-bet pushed MP2 off of a hand that was likely way behind. Becuase of the pot size he may have called down w/ JJ or AQ or some other hopeless hand. He may have felt pot committed (or even reraised the CO LAG) if I'd have just cold-called the first flop raise. Keeping him around obviously decreases the probablility of me winning the pot, but it will likely lead to a bigger pot the majority of the time that I do win

[/ QUOTE ]

Really depends what he/she had, but it was probably a non issue, because in the great majority of these Party 3/6 games a PF cap is AA or KK, so if MP2 had JJ and was "reasonable" there is a good chance they weren't going to put another penny in the pot. I think that in this situation, you protect the pot that is already sizeable against MP2...if you "slowplay" the flop and allow MP2 to catch another club with a hand like AcJx (A "reasonable" hand to open the pot with), you now have to dodge an additional 10+ outs and with the large pot, MP2 may have the odds to draw. If that was in case the fact, I don't think you lost too much EV losing MP2 especially since the small amount you would be gaining is offset by the already large pot.

King