Playing Against Me

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Too ambiguous. How about this: if you were UTG, El D., then what would your action have been?

[/ QUOTE ]

It would depend on what I thought you had. If I thought you had TT or JJ, I'd call. If I thought you had AA, KK, AsKs I'd fold. I'm not being facetious here. A large part of my decision-making against players I've played against before is based on how much I think they like their hand and what they want me to do.

Barring any kind of decent read, I'd fold by default. While you will sometimes have TT, JJ, or some other random hand here (missed AK, small pocket pair, JTs you made a move with, some random hand you made a move with and decided to follow through), I think AA/KK/AKs is going to be a more likely range of hands.

If I make it equally likely that you have AA/KK/AKs v. TT/JJ/other, it's a call. Someone can do the numbers here, but I figure AA/KK and TT/JJ cancel themselves out, and I'm a bigger favorite over "other" than I'm a dog to AKs. Plus there's some money in the middle.

However, if I make it a bit more likely that you have AA/KK/AKs than TT/JJ/other, it quickly becomes a fold. Someone could do the math or PokerStove it if they cared.

[Ian]

well, AsKs matters not a drop

[Ulysses]

I think the all-in is best with one specific hand, which is what I think Jen has, AsKs.

If she pots it on the flop and he calls, she's in a bad situation on the turn with about $1500 in the pot and $1000 behind. She has three options if she misses:

1) Check-fold. With $1500 in the middle and 40% equity in the pot, that's no good.

2) Push. Her fold equity is far less on the turn. So most likely she'll get called, putting $1000 in as a 3:2 dog.

3) Check and hope for a check. I don't think this will happen all that often.

Similar problem w/ the $800 bet.

If she pots it on the flop and he pushes, same as her pushing and him calling, though perhaps less fold equity.

On the other hand, a push here seems the best of both worlds.

If he calls w/ TT/JJ/QQ, she got all the money in as a 55:45 or 52:48 favorite.

If he folds TT/JJ/QQ, she just made $260 on the hand where her equity postflop was +$100 to +$200, so he made a mistake by folding with that money in the middle.

PS: For most all other hands Ian, I generally agree w/ your post.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
well, AsKs matters not a drop

[/ QUOTE ]

Not quite sure what you mean by this.

If she has AsKs and I have QQ, my equity in the hand is about:

1540 if I fold
1720 if I call w/ a spade
1620 if I call w/ no spade

So, I'm a dog, but I should call if she turns her hand over.

In terms of the analysis, I think it's important because when weighting the range of hands, AsKs is a specific hand that will be what she has a fair amount of the time - much more than the times she has something like AdKd.

[lapoker17]

I know this wasn't really the question, but if I'm UTG - and know you to be a rational player, I'm thinking about getting away from the Queens preflop.

[Robk]

why not check the flop with ak [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ?

[Ian]

jen can't go anywhere with AsKs, but still she would rather utg fold on the flop than play an all-in pot. my point is that an $800 bet is more likely to induce a fold than if she bets all-in, because the all-in bet screams "draw". jen knows and utg knows that an $800 bet makes her just as pot committed (except in the unlikely instance she is on a stone cold bluff.)

As for my prior post about why AsKs does not matter to utg: he is getting pot odds to call with QQ, but the EV is trivial relative to the size of the pot. I did not say that he should discount AsKs as a possible holding when weighing the probability that she has AA or KK. BTW, I think she had KK and he spiked the Q to take down the pot. Maybe someday we'll know for sure?

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
why not check the flop with ak [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you count on him to bet? If so, I like a checkraise all-in. If he checks behind, though, and the turn blanks, what then?

[Ulysses]

Yeah, the more I think about it, the more I like $800 better than a push w/ AsKs as well.

[Robk]

most of the people i play against when they check behind this flop, i put them on not good. which makes the turn an easy semibluff, particularly since you are out of position and will call a decent bet if you check. in addition the chances of a raise are small (again i'm talking typical players) because your confusing play so far puts them in either/ or thinking (ie they think you have a big hand or bust).

in a live game (or against better opponents) of course all the image/ history/ opponent/ tell/ read factors come in and i might reason out a different play.

the achilles heel is of course opponents who will bluff raise the turn. but the reason i like this line so much is that the opponents who would put you in that tough spot on the turn mostly won't get a chance because they will bluff on the flop when you check.