No odds for the call, but can I still make it?

[EnderW27]

I put this in the poker theory section because we're talking generalizations here, not necessarily the specifics of my situation.

But, here are the specifics anyway:

SNG, final four people. I'm in chip lead with 2600. Blinds are at 50/100.
I raise UTG with 33 to 350. Folded to the SB who thinks, and thinks, and thinks, and pushes all-in for 1050.

Folded back to me. It's 700 more to me and I KNOW I'm beat. I KNOW he has a middling pocket pair.

I'm getting 3 to 1 on my call for a 5-1 shot. Do I call?

[jlpadge21]

Why would you even think about it? You don't have odds, you aren't calling a desperate short stack, and if you miss he becomes chip leader (in front of you, no less). And from the looks of it, you aren't chip leader by very much, why risk your slight edge at the moment on a losing prospect? In a word, Hell no.

[EnderW27]

Realize, if you call and win, you're in the money with a comanding chip lead. If you call and lose, you're still in the hunt. I'm NOT saying that should be the deciding factor here, but here's the more general question: what odds would you need to call this bet? 4-1? Even odds to money? 6-1 on the gamble you're taking?

Let's say, for instance, you bet 450 UTG instead of 350 and he raises to 1050. Now there's 1600 in the pot and you have to call 600 more.
600 for a pot of 2300 is close to 4-1 odds on a 5-1 shot. Still bad?

[jlpadge21]

I will assume a 50%/30%/20% payout (PP SNG).
So, 5/6 of the time you lose on the call, maybe you squeak into 3rd half the time (might be a low estimate). The other 1/6 you place 1st.
So, (1/6)(1/2)(purse) = (5/6)(1/2)(1/5)(purse). Since its even money on the two outcomes it would have to be an even money call, so something like 600 preflop, i guess, making it 450 to call the 2300.

[jimymat]

Final four with you in the lead you should be staying out of as many pots as possible. What do you expect a short stack to do when you raise ,especially in early pos? There gonna push all in. You should be laying low and wait for pos. I never raise under the gun in late stages because of the fearful reraise all in. You almost always have to fold. Pot odds go out the window. Its all about survival if your trying to make the positive EV play. If your going for first place and the glory you raise all in and force them to the decision. My two cents.

[Brineboitano]

If it's an online game, I really don't think you can ever be 100% sure of your read on a player. In your example, you the player would only need a 1/5 chance of him having 2 overcards to have odds on that call for you to have odds to call him. [ chances of winning: .18(.8) + .51(.2) = .246 ] I honestly think if you aren't prepared to call the shortstack all in that situation you should just fold the hand.

[mistrpug]

There is absolutely no reason to call here. I'm amazed you'd even consider it.

[Louie Landale]

No.

[LinusKS]

If I've done the math right, it should look like this:

FOLD------------CALL&LOSE-------CALL&WIN
Chips/Equity---------------------------
2250/0.2704----1550/0.2107----3800/0.3763
1550/0.2107----2250/0.2704----0000/0.0
2100/0.2594--------------------2100/0.3118
2100/0.2594--------------------2100/0.3118

That means you're risking right about .06 of Prize Equity to win .10.

If you knew he had a higher pair, this would be a terrible deal, since you'd be getting 1-4 odds on 5/3 money.

If you "knew" he had AK, this would be better deal, since you'd be getting better than 1-1 on 5/3 money.

[DyessMan89]

How do you "know" he has a middle pair? Why coudnt he have AK,22,AQ,AQs,AKs, or something along those lines? He probobly does have a middle pair, but I dont see how you can know that for sure.

Anyways, based on your assumptions, its not reasonable to call. You're odds arent right, and even if they were even money id pass.