Chasing a big pot with 66

LeftBack · #1 11-03-2004, 11:29 PM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

I wasn't paying attention to stats, but BB was 67% $VP$IP and CO 34% VP$IP for 17 hands before this one. BB had raised one hand pre-flop; CO none. 

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO raises, Button calls, SB folds, BB 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, CO caps, Button calls, BB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Normally, I would fold, but I thought I was being too weak with pairs, so I called two cold, and then another! [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Flop: (20.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, CO raises, Button calls, BB 3-bets, Hero folds, UTG+1 calls, CO caps, Button calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Normally, I would be having second thoughts about calling pre-flop and fold quickly. Anyone NOT fold here?

BTW, Poker Tracker replay estimates 4 outs (giving a full 2 outs to the backdoor straight draw), which is why I'm asking. I know Ed only gives .5 out for a 2-gap straight draw, but it's still an interesting question, IMO.

Turn: (18.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 folds, CO raises, Button folds, BB calls.

River: (22.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, CO raises, BB calls.

Final Pot: 26.75 BB

Brain · #2 11-04-2004, 01:19 AM

This is one ugly hand. Personally, I get out of the way when it's two back to me PF.

Here, I might call the whole flop knowing I'm gonna get paid if a 6 comes on the turn. Definitely run away if the turn doesn't help.

edthayer · #3 11-04-2004, 01:46 AM

Don't fold preflop. You've got the odds.

Brain · #4 11-04-2004, 01:53 AM

True, 9-2 immediate on your call plus implied if you hit. I just don't know if I like playing, knowing that the pot's going to be huge and I'm gonna get dragged along for the ride.

Entity · #5 11-04-2004, 02:02 AM

Since you don't have the 6:clubs:, I think this is a pretty easy fold on the first flop bet. Preflop is pretty close; I probably fold when it's two cold to me especially if BB has been loose but passive preflop, but it's close. It's 2 to me, but I'm probably looking at a cap with all the people involved, so it's 20:3, so your odds are pretty close.

Rob

LeftBack · #6 11-04-2004, 10:21 PM

BB w/ AA, CO w/ KK.

The interesting thing is that Poker Tracker gave me a 1/6 share 3-way. BB had 2/3 of the pot, and CO didn't have any more equity than me with his KK and runner/runner flush (he had a club). I'm sure we've all lost to a small set with a royal pair, so it's not too hard to believe that 66 is almost as strong as KK.

It would have been exciting if the 4 had fallen on the turn. The pot would justify two bets for a gutshot with a pair (5, maybe 6 outs, since a pair wouldn't make a flush?)