Right to cap the flop here?

[wuarhg]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="CC3333">CO caps</font>, Hero calls, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (18.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 21.50 BB

Side Question:
What are the odds of someone having 2 suited cards or a higher flush at one of these situations?

[ggano]

(You 3-bet the flop, you didn't cap it.)

You've got a great draw and plenty of callers, so 3-betting here is great. Odds are that most of the people caught in between will come along, and it gives CO a chance to cap. In this case it worked as well as you could have hoped for.

It's certainly possible that someone else has a better flush, but it's not likely until you meet a lot of resistance. You backed down too soon. MP1 may very well have a slow-played set, or a newly-acquired diamond-draw, or even less. Put in another raise, especially since CO is getting caught in the middle. Even if MP1 has you beat more than half the time, your bets still make money on average because you're getting paid twice as much when you win as you lose when you don't win.

There's no way to say exactly how often you'll lose to a bigger flush. It happens, but not often.

[Frank A. Adrian]

[ QUOTE ]
What are the odds of someone having 2 suited cards or a higher flush at one of these situations?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not enough to keep me from at least 3-betting the turn and betting out on the river on this hand. I'd sooner think that MP1 has a straight and cap it all the way.

[plaschke]

There are 8 diamonds left. So there are (8 choose 2) = 28 combinations of suited diamond hands.
There are 990 combinations of hands that villian could have

28/990 = 3% about 30 to 1

Take in to consideration that only T, J, Q, K and A beat you. Then it is probably around 1.5% you are beat.

I have been beat K high flush to an A high a few times.
I also was beat by a str8 flush with an A high flush.
S*** happens.

Also a guy here was in a three way pot, though the board was four to the flush. The live players had A, K and Q.

All 3 players went all-in.

There is always that 1 in 100 chance you are beat, but if don't raise everytime you won't get the extra money the 97% of the time you win.

[nrinker]

id like to say that losing to a bigger flush happens often, i think its a myth that it happens less often.

[PokerIsLife]

I really don't believe that MP1 is slowing playing a set here. That is a dangerous flop to be slow playing. I think more than likely that this guy has a flush. I think you slowed down at a good time. If I had 2nd high flush then I would pump it, but 5th highest flush, I would trend on the side of caution.

[Henke]

According to this article, the probability that you'll be beaten by a higher flush is about 17%, if we assume that everyone with a higher suited hand than yours wouldn't have folded preflop.

But with 4 other players in the pot, you're still making a +EV cap on the flop here, if my calculations are correct...

[k000k]

[ QUOTE ]
There are 8 diamonds left. So there are (8 choose 2) = 28 combinations of suited diamond hands.
There are 990 combinations of hands that villian could have

28/990 = 3% about 30 to 1

Take in to consideration that only T, J, Q, K and A beat you. Then it is probably around 1.5% you are beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to be nitpicky, but J is on the board. Your probability is if only ONE player is in it with you. For an arbitrary # players:

# - % - odds:
1 .0283 34.4:1
2 .0558 16.9:1
3 .0825 11.1:1
4 .1084 8.2:1
5 .1336 6.5:1
6 .1581 5.3:1
7 .1812 4.5:1
8 .2051 3.9:1
9 .2276 3.4:1

is the probability that any of # random hands makes ANY other flush. Out of those flushes, more beat yours than dont.

Ax (7) Kx (6) Qx (5) Tx (4) = 22 that beat you
8x (3) 6x (2) 4x (1) = 6 that lose to you.

FOUR opponents saw that flush card hit. By my math: 10.84% (8.2:1), is the odds that one of FOUR opp's hold 2 diamonds, is reduced by 6/22 to 8.87%, (or 10.3:1). You will be beat by a higher flush a little less than once every 11 times.

And yes you're absolutely correct to raise that flop and cap it if given the chance. You have to discount a little in case the board pairs on the river, or even worse, another diamond falls..

[Henke]

OTOH the article assumes that only three flushcards will be on the board once the rivercard is dealt. But since the probability of turn AND river both being flushcards is quite low, I would say that your turn-bet is probably still +EV...

[wuarhg]

Excellent answers, I appreciate it.

CO had 55 and MP had Kd 4d [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]