When is the point i can safely start counting outs

Apocalypse · #1 11-02-2004, 09:15 AM

BB is a pretty good solid player, CO is a bit of a loose goose preflop. he knows me as well and respects my play (i hope [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] )

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, MP folds, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, SB folds, BB caps, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12.40 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, CO calls, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (10.70 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (13.70 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, CO folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15.70 BB

is there anywhere i can drop this? I know he only caps premiumhands (he'd coldcall AQs preflop). So with that in mind and after the flopaction he can be safely put on aces imo. Any set he would call my raise with on the flop in order to craise me on the turn. But theres just nowhere i could find a spot to drop this hand? o and he flipped over aces by the way [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

imitation · #2 11-02-2004, 09:31 AM

The pot is so big you really do have to call it down.

I suppose an idea for saving 1 1/2 bigbets could be to cap the flop, then folding is certainly an option as a set starts to become much more of a reality when someone leads into you after a flop cap or you would start to think your K outs are probably not clean. Or I would bet the turn if checked to and take a free showdown if BB still calls.

Benjamin · #3 11-02-2004, 11:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
is there anywhere i can drop this? I know he only caps premiumhands (he'd coldcall AQs preflop). So with that in mind and after the flopaction he can be safely put on aces imo. Any set he would call my raise with on the flop in order to craise me on the turn.

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If you really have that tight a read on him, then count the outs and pot before calling the turn bet, which you have to call for pot odds, and then fold the river. In my world I don't ever have a read that good (or if I do I don't trust it enough) and I call the river pretty much 100%. Imitation's idea about saving a small bet by capping the flop is good. Either you can take a free card or you can fold the river more easily if he keeps betting after the cap.

B.

Ikke · #4 11-02-2004, 12:18 PM

I would be interested in hearing your rational behind the flop-raise.

Regards

Apocalypse · #5 11-02-2004, 12:57 PM

of course because of the probability im raising with the best of it, but even more to gain info about where im at, or on what hand i can put BB on. Too bad i don't follow through with my conclusions...

look since i know this opponent very well(and his cap preflop means AA-JJ and AKs, everything else would be coldcalled):
if BB calls, i bet on turn and if cr'sed: i fold (since i put him on kings knowing his style and im drawing dead)
if BB 3-bets(either ak or aa), i can cap like suggested and try to force my options from there or i can call and seriously consider folding to a turnbet.

I did none of that though...

kiddo · #6 11-02-2004, 01:41 PM

If u have such a good read on him - knowing he got AK, AA-JJ - I would call flop, keeping the loosegoose in. I guess he will check turn with QQ and JJ against one preflopraiser and preflop3bettor (cause he knows u, and knows there is something fishy with your flop call).

If he bets turn u know he got AA, KK or AK and u can fold instead of drawing for 5-3 outs (three times more often 3 outs, because AK got 16 combinations and AA 6. Making it something like 3.5outs)

If you raise and he 3bets flop I would normally fold turn, specially if other guy is in, he is making you few outs even fewer.

Ikke · #7 11-02-2004, 01:57 PM

You're thinking about the wrong things IMO. When it gets to you on the flop you're getting 1:14. At this point you know you can't fold against any hand but a set getting these odds. So you see that it is not important to get information about whether your hand is good or not for making the decision to fold. You aren't gonna (except for the river maybe (if your read can be that good)), and if you do it on the turn it would be either a big money loser (if you read is somewhat wrong) or only a very slight money winner (in the order of less than 1% of a big bet if he holds AA or AK).

Raising could make sense for information purposes if you can maximizing your profit when ahead or minimize when behind. But, you said you had a very tight preflop read on him, so don't you already have the information to a big extend?

Far more important is if a raise allows you to increase your chances of winning this pot. That should be your main consideration. And I'm quite positive it doesn't (at least not on the flop).

Regards

Trix · #8 11-02-2004, 01:58 PM

Since the pot is that big, you cant really fold anywhere, so the info you gain by raising the flop will help him alot more than you.

Ikke · #9 11-02-2004, 02:05 PM

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three times more often 3 outs, because AK got 16 combinations and AA 6. Making it something like 3.5outs)

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No. You're forgetting you hold a K already and another K is on the board.

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If u have such a good read on him - knowing he got AK, AA-JJ - I would call flop, keeping the loosegoose in.

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If a raise allows you to drop the loosegoose then it would be a big pro for raising. If you assume this tight a read as Apocalypse suggests you should be able to determine the right course of action fairly accurately by doing the math. Maybe a good exercise.

Regards

Joe826 · #10 11-02-2004, 02:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I suppose an idea for saving 1 1/2 bigbets could be to cap the flop, then folding is certainly an option as a set starts to become much more of a reality when someone leads into you after a flop cap or you would start to think your K outs are probably not clean. Or I would bet the turn if checked to and take a free showdown if BB still calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think capping the flop for a free card is a bit crazy. i use this play occasionally, but i have a pretty hard time believing BB won't lead the turn with a board like that.