15 30 AA things don't go according to plan

[Robk]

party 4 handed.

player info: CO is a lag. given that the game is 4 handed and fired up though he's only a couple notches above me on the lag scale. his aggression will generally be backed by something, ie he won't spew chips bluffing if he has nothing. he's up about 2k in the last hour.

sb hasn't been here that long. seemed typicial at first, but is coming unglued as the LAG takes three or so good pots off him.

lag raised in the co, sb called, i reraised in the BB with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. The lag capped, sb and I called.

The flop was 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. We both checked to the CO who bet. The SB checkraised, and I called the two bets cold. The co made it 3 bets and we both called.

The turn was the Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. The sb checked and I bet. The CO raised. Now the SB made it 3 bets.

What's my plan here and how did I do so far?

[Grisgra]

I think you did fine, but I probably lay it down. The SB's play screams "set", and the CO's play screams KK. But on a really LAG table, well, you might be up against KK and AQ, who knows.

On 95% of 5/10 tables, though, you're beaten at this point.

[Schneids]

Wow. Tough spot. I call down barring the turn getting capped and then having to call another two cold at any time on the river. If that happens I would release to two cold on the river. I just can't see too many hands the SB would play like this. If SB is tilting KhQh is possible or maybe QhJh but I don't think SB would play a set like this, would he? If SB has Q8 or Q7 (what I deem the two most likely hands) then you have a decent amount of outs and the pot is huge so I would think you have to see a river card. It seems like he's simply trying to isolate the LAG as much as possible, rather than trap you between him and the LAG, so, I really don't see the SB having a set.

Tough hand. Very curious if I am the only one who would still try to get to showdown if it'll take 3-4BBs more or less.

[Robk]

Hey Grisgra,

I disagree with a few points.

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The SB's play screams "set",

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My read was that a set was an unlikely hand for the SB, even though he's played his hand quite strong. First of all with QQ, 88, or 77 I'd expect him to reraise preflop. Second as Schneids points out his postflop play seems inconsistent with a set. The flop checkraise would be unusual with such a big hand (not that it's nec. wrong, just most wouldn't do it).

[ QUOTE ]
and the CO's play screams KK.

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From a more conservative player I'd expect the big pair here most times. But this guy's hand range was much wider, in spite of the cap preflop.

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On 95% of 5/10 tables, though, you're beaten at this point.

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I've played some 5-10 lately and this I definitely agree with. But in more aggressive games it isn't always clear. One other point is that even if I expect to be behind say 80% of the time here it's a call because of the pot size and my chances of improving.

[Spook]

[ QUOTE ]
I would think you have to see a river card. It seems like he's simply trying to isolate the LAG as much as possible, rather than trap you between him and the LAG, so, I really don't see the SB having a set.

Tough hand. Very curious if I am the only one who would still try to get to showdown if it'll take 3-4BBs more or less.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you have the best hand.
If the SB has a set he would bet out the turn hoping to have you call and have a raise to his right? Which is much different than checkraising to get you away from your flush draw.

[Robk]

Hey Schneids,

Good post, thanks for the analysis.

[ QUOTE ]
If SB is tilting KhQh is possible or maybe QhJh but I don't think SB would play a set like this, would he? If SB has Q8 or Q7 (what I deem the two most likely hands) then you have a decent amount of outs and the pot is huge so I would think you have to see a river card.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was almost word for word my thinking while the hand was going on. The second he 3 bet, Q8 popped into my head.

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It seems like he's simply trying to isolate the LAG as much as possible, rather than trap you between him and the LAG, so, I really don't see the SB having a set.


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I also think this is dead on.

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I call down barring the turn getting capped and then having to call another two cold at any time on the river. If that happens I would release to two cold on the river.

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Here's where my thinking departed a bit. At the table I thought there was a decent chance the CO had a 5 out hand since my turn bet looked strange and ripe for a raise with a marginal hand to knock out the small blind. Since he might fold for two bets instead of calling one I made it four bets. With also the possibilty of getting to see a showdown without putting any money in on the river. In retrospect this is possibly bunk thinking, I'm not sure. It's hard for me to get a good read on the CO here since his hand range is unusually wide.

[PokerNoob]

I'm thinking 87 is more likely for SB, although if he is coming unglued he may be playing a set this way because the checkraise is more emotionally satisfying than actually winning the most money from his nemisis the LAG. I would call here, as again it makes you look more like AQ and a set might cap the river if an ace falls.

The river is going to be expensive no matter what you do. I think the river is going to be led by the SB no matter what it is, except maybe a 3 or Q. CO will raise no matter what you do, except maybe if an A or Q falls and he only has KK. It will be a shame if you're losing and CO keeps raising the 3rd best hand, but what can you do?

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]


Here's where my thinking departed a bit. At the table I thought there was a decent chance the CO had a 5 out hand since my turn bet looked strange and ripe for a raise with a marginal hand to knock out the small blind. Since he might fold for two bets instead of calling one I made it four bets. With also the possibilty of getting to see a showdown without putting any money in on the river. In retrospect this is possibly bunk thinking, I'm not sure. It's hard for me to get a good read on the CO here since his hand range is unusually wide.

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I've been thinking and going back and forth with this for a day now. I see your reasons for 4-betting, and I like it. Just not in this spot with this table's texture... From your description it sounds like SB will still bet out on the river even if you cap the turn, quite often. You have a better grip on the table though so if you thought there was a decent chance he'd check it to you with two-pair then I like the 4-bet much more.

What is your river plan anyway? If you 4-bet and are bet into are you taking that as a confirmation to fold? If you get checked to and CO is still in do you check and call CO's bet, even if SB calls?

[theBruiser500]

what happened

[Gazza]

Given the description of the players, the violence of the game and the texture of the board it's difficult to know where you stand. You are probably behind but it wouldn't be that shocking if you were up against T9h or KK (SB) and A8 or AQ or many other hands (CO).And against the most likely holdings to beat you, two pair, you obviously have to call with all your outs. Therefore stick your money in and hope for the best.
I am curious as to why you just cold called on the flop. Was it to keep the CO in or were you waiting for the turn to raise? Surely you didn't think you were already behind? With a large pot I would prefer to telegraph my strength immediately by 3 betting the flop (perhaps flop raises were meaningless in this game)
Gazza