Lay Down AA on a non-scary board?

[davidross]

WellI wish I had seen it as clearly as most of you. In my mind one of them had TT and the other was just too stubborn to believe it. I was afraid they'd go on capping the river too and decided to trust my read. They had JJ and KK [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

15 minutes later I knew the guy with JJ was just terrible. The guy with KK clearly already knew that. He 3 bet him constantly leaving me very few hands to play. But with a $700 pot, I can't fold here if only for hitting my 2 outer.

So did I learn my lesson?? I just folded the winner in a $584 pot 5 minutes ago for a $30 river bet. Man I can't keep giving away pots like this.

[AlwaysWrong]

Hey david,

You seem to have the same disease as I do - the assumption that people act rationally. I've learned that folding real hands against unknown opponents just isn't worth it, even if it does seem like I'm deader than doornails.

I like that you're able to make the laydown, but you really need to give poker tracker some time to work its magic before you start making these folds, imo.

[Popinjay]

I for one am not satisfied with the answers. Sure they matched up to the results, but is it the right choice? I think vs. unknowns we gotta look at this mathematically. What is the probability that both of them have overpairs vs the probability that one of them has you beat. I am a limit newbie but I think this is what is important to look at here.

[danbridy]

I used to do this all the time as well. I havent played any terribly high limits yet since I recently moved up to 10/20, but laying down the winner is so bad. I did it tons of times when I first started playing and regretted it everytime. I have rarely folded AA and I would be pretty hesitant to, especically in limit. Making big lay downs seems crucial in NL, but usually wrong in limit. You HAVE to call on the river. Investing so much money into a hand and then folding the river is probably the worst thing you can do. More often than not people will have something loony that you didnt even expect and are trying to bluff or some such. On this hand, it seems like you are definetely ahead. At least if you call and lose, you will know you were beat, rather than having to wonder what the guy had for a week.

[roy_miami]

[ QUOTE ]
I for one am not satisfied with the answers. Sure they matched up to the results, but is it the right choice? I think vs. unknowns we gotta look at this mathematically. What is the probability that both of them have overpairs vs the probability that one of them has you beat. I am a limit newbie but I think this is what is important to look at here.

[/ QUOTE ]

At any game its highly unlikely that there are 3 overpairs duking it out. At Party its very likely (probably in the 85% range) that one of these dudes is raising his flush draw. On that board there was no way I was folding AA on the turn, but I probably would have folded the river to 2 bets if a spade came. What was the river action anyway?

[Grisgra]

I'm in the "pay and pray" camp. You've got aces for god's sake -- doesn't have to be TT and KK, could be KK and an aggressive flush draw. AKs, perhaps.

You've just seen how wacky the table can get, gotta call this puppy down.

[BarronVangorToth]

The advice is a bit late but I can't see folding here. Then again, I'm a bit of a caller. But I'd call it down.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com

[Ulysses]

Who exactly is doing the betting and raising is somewhat important here and you should clarify that next time. Bison's hand history converter rules. But when there's that much action pre-flop and a pretty raggy board, other overpairs are very likely. On the flop, you're most likely gonna be up against a flush draw and another overpair. I'd 3-bet the turn. If capped, then bet and raised into on the river, I'd just call the river 2-bet. While these aren't the guys you've seen be crazy, they're sitting at a crazy table where people are overplaying their hands and will act accordingly.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
What is the probability that both of them have overpairs vs the probability that one of them has you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

They don't both need overpairs. AT, flush draw, and overpair are all reasonable hands he could be up against. The pre-flop 3-bet and the fact that the board is only ten-high make it not unlikely that there's another overpair or two out who will play very aggressively.

[JasonP530]

RUN your money in there. Just get it in there.