Pattern Poker

[Tommy Angelo]

I just started a collection file called Pattern Poker. It will fill up with betting patterns that hardly anyone ever does besides me. That does not mean that the patterns are profitable or unprofitable. But it does mean that these actions have a chance to be profitable or unprofitable, no matter who did them, just by virtue of being rare.

Pattern one: I openraise before the flop. One player calls behind me and both blinds fold. Headsup with me first. The flop comes. I check, he bets, I fold.

(It doesn't matter what position I raised from or what position he called from, and it doesn't matter what my cards are or what the flop is. Pattern Poker filters out the noise so that I can listen to the leftovers.)

Pattern two: Several players limp and I limp behind on the button. The blinds are in and no-one raises. The flop comes. One or two players check and the next one bets. Players call behind him, and I call too. Now it gets checkraised. Everyone calls. I fold.

This pattern happened yesterday at $20-40 at Bay101. The flop was scattered rainbow. I had flopped second pair with no backdoor draws or overcard.


Tommy

[Yobz]

Tommy, I've seen you post and I know you are a MILLION times the player I will ever be, but...wouldn't both of these be weak tight? In pattern two, if you call aren't you getting the outs to spike 2 pair or get trips? or do you think your already drawing dead if you get either?
Pattern 1 isn't all that terrible although a c/r is my usual line....depends on the read on your opponent. But once again, I am a millionth the poker player you are [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Tommy Angelo]

"wouldn't both of these be weak tight?"

If you say so. That phrase has no meaning to me.

"In pattern two, if you call aren't you getting the outs to spike 2 pair or get trips? or do you think your already drawing dead if you get either?"

The effect of the checkraise was a huge and sudden increase in the probability of drawing dead. And there's more. After the checkraise, even I hit the turn, I'm not going to raise the turn. I'm going to hold on the showdown and hope. Whereas without the checkraise on the flop, I could raise the turn after I hit, and most likely I'd have the best hand and get paid off well.

Tommy

[ChrisW]

> Pattern one: I openraise before the flop. One player
> calls behind me and both blinds fold. Headsup with me
> first. The flop comes. I check, he bets, I fold.

How about a not-particularly-loose game where you raise from middle position with 99, the button calls (so he knows that he's getting at most four way action), and an AQJ flop?

[mike l.]

"After the checkraise, even I hit the turn, I'm not going to raise the turn. I'm going to hold on the showdown and hope."

this parts the key. whenever im drawing to a hand in a multiway pot and im not going to love my hand enough to raise, even if i get there, then i think folding right away rather than drawing at all becomes a very important consideration. experience has taught me that drawing in this case (and either getting there, or not) is a serious chip bleed.

[anduril]

I don't see either of them as being rare, I do both commonly in the same situations, especially pattern 1 while playing lower limits against level 1 thinkers.

[na4bart]

I check, he bets, I raise. He doesn't have a set with any of the big pairs, nor KK, TT, AK. He didn't 3 bet did he. If he has AQ, oh well, I'm sure I'll find out before the river but, probably not AQ either (no 3 bet).

[Pensive Gerbil]

[ QUOTE ]
...these actions have a chance to be profitable or unprofitable, no matter who did them, just by virtue of being rare.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe the frequency of specific betting patterns, viewed in isolation, has little to do with their profitability or lack thereof. I am more interested in the frequency of particular betting patterns in relation to other betting patterns which provide balance, comprising an integrated overall strategy. Such considerations are particularly important in heads-up situations IMO. For example, the EV of your "Pattern One" is probably very dependent on the relative frequencies with which you check-call or check-raise the flop heads-up after having open-raised.

The frequencies with which you take various actions on the turn and river may also interact with your preflop and flop proclivities in complex ways that affect the EV of a particular betting pattern. Furthermore, betting pattern analysis which incorporates parameters of hand value would potentially be much more useful than analyses that ommit hand value considerations. Other factors, such as player characteristics, can also be thrown into the mix. Of course, this sort of analysis quickly becomes overwhelmingly complex!

Regards,

PG

[Senor Choppy]

I fail to see how raising with the intention of check-folding the flop when called can be profitable [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[anduril]

I really doubt Tommy's initial "plan" was to check/fold the flop, but that there are certain circumstances based on opponent tendencies that make you believe there is a 0% or close to it chance that the opponent is giving up a hand you can't beat.