#1
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Big pot, huge draw, how do you evaluate these outs?
I've made the move over to small-stakes limit play recently, but with the pot averages looking decent for once, I decided to sit at my old gravy train for the evening, Party $50NL.
If some others would run through their line of thinking facing the flop actions, I think it might be interesting. Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (9 handed) saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font> MP1 ($31.85) MP2 ($90.65) <font color="C00000">MP3 ($60.5)</font> CO ($110.25) <font color="C00000">Button ($80.05)</font> <font color="C00000">Hero ($106.05)</font> BB ($34) UTG ($46.5) UTG+1 ($66.4) Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises to $2</font>, MP3 calls $2, CO calls $2, Button calls $2, Hero calls $1.50, BB calls $1. Flop: ($12) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(6 players)</font> Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets $1</font>, MP3 calls $1, CO folds, <font color="CC3333">Button raises to $6</font>, Hero calls $6, BB folds, MP2 calls $5, <font color="CC3333">MP3 raises to $58.5 (All-In)</font>, <font color="CC3333">Button raises to $78.05 * The action itself may seem pretty straightforward, I'm more interested in how others would calculate their likely outs, and pot equity/odds. Also, It's worth noting that I had no specific reads on the two key players, but this had been a high-action table previously. |
#2
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Re: Big pot, huge draw, how do you evaluate these outs?
Call call call! Reasons 1) It's party poker so by default one of those is a complete moron [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] 2) Even if 1 isn't true, you have a straight-flush draw, one of which will come about 50% of the time. Plus 2 over cards for a possible extra 6 outs for a high pair. I think its even correct to call heads up, but three way FOR SURE!
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#3
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Re: Big pot, huge draw, how do you evaluate these outs?
[ QUOTE ]
Call call call! Reasons 1) It's party poker so by default one of those is a complete moron [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] 2) Even if 1 isn't true, you have a straight-flush draw, one of which will come about 50% of the time. Plus 2 over cards for a possible extra 6 outs for a high pair. I think its even correct to call heads up, but three way FOR SURE! [/ QUOTE ] I would call too but I don't think his 2 over outs are good. Also would suck if he was up against a set and a nut flush draw. |
#4
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Re: Big pot, huge draw, how do you evaluate these outs?
I would think the hands would be an overpair and either trips or two pars, so
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=583672 pokenum -h kc qc - jd th - qd qh -- 8c js tc Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Js Tc 8c cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Kc Qc 437 48.39 448 49.61 18 1.99 0.494 Jd Th 345 38.21 558 61.79 0 0.00 0.382 Qd Qh 103 11.41 782 86.60 18 1.99 0.124 http://twodimes.net/h/?z=583667 pokenum -h kc qc - 8d 8s - ad as -- 8c js tc Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Js Tc 8c cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Kc Qc 331 36.66 572 63.34 0 0.00 0.367 8s 8d 545 60.35 358 39.65 0 0.00 0.604 As Ad 27 2.99 876 97.01 0 0.00 0.030 |
#5
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Re: Big pot, huge draw, how do you evaluate these outs?
Yeah, it's a pretty easy call. What I was interested in was how others would evaluate their outs, given that a made straight/shared straight outs/made set are all distinct possibilities. It would interest me to know if others considered outs/pot odds to break down the same way I did.
For anyone keeping score I called and the hit the flush on the turn, both opponents had Q9 for the flopped straight. |
#6
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Glad it worked out well
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=584773
pokenum -h qh 9h - qd 9d - kc qc -- 8c js tc Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Js Tc 8c cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Qh 9h 0 0.00 456 50.50 447 49.50 0.245 Qd 9d 0 0.00 456 50.50 447 49.50 0.245 Kc Qc 456 50.50 435 48.17 12 1.33 0.509 |
#7
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Re: Big pot, huge draw, how do you evaluate these outs?
Even if your over card outs are no good, you're a money favourite with 15 outs heads up. I would call in a heartbeat.
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#8
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Re: Big pot, huge draw, how do you evaluate these outs?
easy call, even heads up, since there is dead money in the pot already, and you have 15 clean outs.
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#9
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Re: Big pot, huge draw, how do you evaluate these outs?
Fold. Three reasons:
1: Your flush outs are not good. 2: Someone may have a set, in which case your EV is even less positive. 3: Someone who plays badly will soon have a large stack and you want to preserve your $80 stack to take it from them more quickly. The posters thus far are too dogmatic about their all in standards. I do not know if the call is EV, but if it is it is very slighly EV and will make it harder to make a large +EV decision later. Yads and Johnny are presumptuous in their out-counting. The action suggests both a monster made hand and a nut flush draw. |
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