Party 3/6: Summoning my inner calling station....

[Michael Davis]

"
He's good 7/8 of the time here!?

Could we settle for Chesspain left a little money on the table? 3/4 BB is wildly inflated. You admitted as much when you said bluff raises are profitable here. That means you often don't get paid."

Yes.

-Michael

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
But sometimes you hit TT/J2/AT and three outs are dead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I'm drawing very live to J2/T2 due to the pair on the board.



[ QUOTE ]
Could we settle for Chesspain left a little money on the table?

[/ QUOTE ]

I pretty much knew this as soon as I hit "call" instead of "raise" on the river. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[zamora]

very interesting reply.

since a good player probably wouldn´t bet the river with only ace high, do you think that a lesser one would lay down a better hand once in 4.5 times to a river bluff raise?

i may be way out of my leauge here but i used a pen and paper to try to figure this one out. but i am pretty tired and this could be wrong.

assume chesspain gains 3/4 bets by raising the river. That should mean that in 12 hands he should get called and win 10 times, get called and loose one time and not get a call one time. i am also assuming that the opponent never will re-raise or fold a better hand.

this should mean that a bluff-raise is at least questionable. (factoring in the likelyhood that opponent would fold more often with a rivered K or Q than with a J or T)

edit: missed the posts that said that the 3/4 bets won was a little too much. sorry. still not convinced about the long term EV in this hand, though. I think that the fact that this is 3/6 makes it a small looser.

[Michael Davis]

Well, I do think you should be on the lookout for charging at turns and rivers that don't make sense. There are certain cards that hit that should slow someone down if the hand they have makes any sense, and often continued charging would mean that either a) the player does indeed have three 7s or b) the player is on a dry bluff.

3/4 bet is overestimate as Stellarwind pointed out.

-Michael

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey Chesspain,

I don't like your flop bet. Do you plan on following through on the turn versus one opponent? Two? I think you're underestimating the number of times you're behind and the times you'll get called by overs, hands like 87s or T8s, and Ace high. I also don't like your flop call. You have somewhere in the area of 5 outs +/- a tenth or two, with about equal implied and reverse implid odds. Your turn call is fine. You're getting just under 5:1 on just under 9 outs. And yes, you have a raise on the river.

Change the flop to 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and I bet. Without the diamond I don't.

Change the flop to 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and I don't bet, but it's very close and I might if the opponents are right. Without the diamond I don't.

GoT

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
If I had bet the flop, then I would have 3bet and probably taken my cheap card on the turn,

[/ QUOTE ]

This is lunacy. Cheap card for what? Why not just take a FREE card the first time.

People, we have NO hand, NO draw, NO need to get involved here. Not to mention 3 opponents in a small pot.

[Trix]

If I had bet..

[Noodles]

[ QUOTE ]
the problem is it's a 7-high crappy board. people love chasing overcards, and he's certainly not protecting the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
yea what is the point of betting to protect your hand, when your hand is crap?

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
If I had bet..

[/ QUOTE ]

Given that you also said this, I don't think my reply was unreasonable.

[ QUOTE ]
Think you are right about betting this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

[joker122]

who said anything about protecting a hand? everyone has agreed that this bet is a semi-bluff with emphasis on the bluff part.