My problem with semi bluffing here...

[Lawrence Ng]

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In general, it seems turn card semi-bluffs don't work with nearly the same frequency as they did a few years ago. FWIW, I played at higher stakes last week than I have before (80-160) and for three hours I saw exactly nobody who had bet the turn fold to a turn raise. Nobody. And if you know your guy isn't folding either, then the value of the raise is markedly diminished.

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I have to agree with Andy here. Semi-bluffing has lost a lot of it's value over the years as higher limit players have realized the strategy and counter strategy behind it. I monitor how often I check-raise the turn (usually with solid goods) and get called down. Amazingly to say, the percentage is very high.

Two main reasons attribute to this:

1. The player does have a good/strong hand.
2. Pot size warrants for them to call you down. It usually costs 2 big bets, but players will often wind up losing the pot which is a heck of a lot more.

In most of the games I play, the players are not as observant as most of the posters here on 2+2. This makes the semi-bluff very hard to pull off as I need my opponents to know that I'm a tight player who won't pull a semi-bluff very often. I might be able to do this in a 50-100 game and up with good players, but not in a loose ram jam 20-40 game.

[bernie]

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If he's the kind of guy who might spew some more chips without a hand that can beat your fours

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It's most likely he can beat my 4s. He won't spew more chips with a lesser hand at that point.

[ QUOTE ]
In general, it seems turn card semi-bluffs don't work with nearly the same frequency as they did a few years ago. FWIW, I played at higher stakes last week than I have before (80-160) and for three hours I saw exactly nobody who had bet the turn fold to a turn raise.

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So, in general, the guys who are capable of folding here should stick out much more than just the typical players?

Did the guys raising the turn usually have what they were representing?

I think bobby's point about doing it at times so they don't always know you have it is valid. The predictability factor. Or when someone does start folding to the turn, start semi bluffing a little more. Work it in that way.

b

btw...How'd the 80-160 go? I hope it went better than my 1st crack at 20-40.

[andyfox]

Some of the turn raises were semi-bluffs, some were pure bluffs, and some were as advertised. About the same as what they are in 40-80, except that I see it less often now in 40-80 because it doesn't work as much any more. The 80-160 game played about the same pre-flop, on the flop, and on the river as 40-80, but was more aggressive on the turn. Interesting that it was since, as I said, nobody folded to the turn raise for one more bet.

FWIW, I hit a few hands at the 80-160 and won a rack.

[nykenny]

i wouldn't raise either. 3 bet and lead on turn on 2-tone board when the turn card is an over card that completes a flush usually means a lot of strength.

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
Some of the turn raises were semi-bluffs, some were pure bluffs, and some were as advertised. About the same as what they are in 40-80, except that I see it less often now in 40-80 because it doesn't work as much any more. The 80-160 game played about the same pre-flop, on the flop, and on the river as 40-80, but was more aggressive on the turn. Interesting that it was since, as I said, nobody folded to the turn raise for one more bet.

FWIW, I hit a few hands at the 80-160 and won a rack.

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congrats! a rack is 2k, right? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[andyfox]

Yes.

[M2d]

nice rack

[M2d]

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The problem is i know he isn't folding here.

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maybe a semanitic point, but if the above is true, then the raise would be a value bet and not a semi-bluff.

OTOH, maybe this definition is enough to keep you from (or induce you to) changing your original course of action, then maybe it is a valuable consideration.

For this hand, I've found myself folding these hands pre-flop a lot more recently, since people aren't as compliant as they once were. you don't see the the raise pf, bet flop take it scenario as often.

I do raise here at times, though, so I can see myself in this situation (and I probably get there via a route similar to yours).

As I started with, if he isn't folding, then you're value betting. Now, we all have and do value bet draws, but I don't think heads up on the turn against a player who's shown strength is the time. you can't fold getting 7-1 on your draws, so the only thing left is to call. right?

but, hang on. I've seen some people online RR a late (steal) raise and fire all the way through with nothing. They've even gotten very aggro with draws of their own. Maybe his flush got there and is cutting into your outs. Is this enough to change a call into a fold? probably not, but I don't think raising is as bad as it looks initially. I still call down, though.

[Kooch]

Raising here depends on whether you've decided to call his hand down no matter the river card, even if you miss your flush draw, hoping perhaps he just has AKo (and assuming no A or K hit river)and your pair may be good. He may also muck a hand like AK or even JJ to your raise at this point, assuming your flush has already been completed or you have 2 pair or the like. If you are planning on seeing his hand, then raise for its potential value should you hit your hand, and also to slow him down so he'll check the river perhaps if he does call your raise. If you're planning to muck should you miss, then I just flat call and hope for the best. First option (raising) has many more positive outcomes obviously than flat calling, but those are just my thoughts.

Kooch.